Ancient philosophy has an answer for many things, and where it becomes difficult to be unambiguous, there are at least sentences like that of the Greek philosopher Socrates: “I know that I know nothing.”
For example, it is not known at the moment whether the Russian Gazprom group will really send gas through the Nord Stream 1 Baltic Sea pipeline again after the end of the maintenance work this Thursday, nor how much it will be in the end. 40 percent? More? Fewer?
On Tuesday afternoon, the news agency Reuters quoted Insider as saying that Russian gas should flow to Western Europe again on Thursday – but not yet in full. “They (Gazprom) will return to the level seen before July 11,” said one of the insiders. Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, warned on Wednesday night: If Russia does not get back the turbine repaired in Canada, the daily throughput capacity of the pipeline threatens to fall significantly at the end of July; from the current 67 to just 33 million cubic meters. What and how much will then flow in the end – on Thursday and the days after that you will know exactly.
Because the fear runs deep: will Russia use the pipeline as the ultimate weapon in the sanctions war against the West, continue to shut down pipeline operations and then watch from afar how a country like Germany gets through the winter?
The chemical and pharmaceutical industry is the largest gas consumer
Of course, the German Chemical Industry Association (VCI) also doesn’t know exactly how things will continue. But when the members of the association explain their view of the gas supply situation in Germany, it pays to listen more closely, because there are already some certainties. For example: The chemical and pharmaceutical industry needs around 135 terawatt hours of gas a year. Or, to put it another way: With a share of 15 percent, it is the largest gas consumer in Germany.
PET bottles and car tires, of course. But things like painkillers, candles, food and detergents or clothing are also dependent on the industry. Actually almost everything. “We are closely linked to the rest of the industry,” says Jörg Rothermel, energy expert at the VCI. Therefore, one must “deal with the danger of real, physical supply problems. We could still see considerable distortions in the industrial sector.”
Bavaria’s most important gas storage facility is in Austria
The relationship between the north and the south of the country is one of the things that you don’t know exactly, but where you can guess how things will continue. In other words, those regions where gas could become particularly scarce. Above all, Bavaria, which is supplied to a large extent via the Austrian gas storage facility in Haidach near Salzburg, is likely to have a problem. Because one of the largest gas depots in Central Europe is already pretty empty, belongs to Gazprom and is also across the border in Austria. A gas shortage will therefore “not be seen in Germany at the same time and not across the board,” says VCI expert Rothermel. In the worst case, it would hit the east and south first. The Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU), who had already warned of solidarity in Germany as a precaution, also knows this. “If the Bavarian economy has a problem, then Germany has a problem,” he said. Disadvantage compared to the north will “under no circumstances be allowed”.
LNG by ship to Bavaria? Difficult.
Is it all just a question of national cooperation? No, says VCI man Rothermel. This is less about solidarity and more about logistics. “NRW and Lower Saxony can show as much solidarity with Bavaria as they want. In the end, the technical conditions decide.” And they are who they are. If the gas can’t be transported south quickly, then solidarity won’t help either. “You won’t be able to bring liquefied gas by ship across the rivers to Bavaria,” he says. That too, after all, one of the few certainties these days.
What the association doesn’t want: Private households and industry being played off against each other, the “who gets how much gas first in an emergency” game that has been debated for weeks. “As a whole,” says Rothermel, everyone should contribute. And companies would have to decide and part with individual productions. The question is then: “How economical are certain productions for me at what price?” To be more specific: In Germany, the land of many different car models, types of pasta, shampoos and face creams, you may have to be prepared to have fewer choices in the near future. At least that.