For many, the horrific images from Bucha bring a new dimension to Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine. The pressure to take tougher action against Moscow is increasing – and the first reactions follow.
The atrocities in the small Ukrainian town of Bucha near Kyiv have caused horror and outrage worldwide. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) speaks of a crime by the Russian armed forces, the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj even of “genocide”, but what follows from this?
As a first reaction, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock declared 40 employees of the Russian embassy “undesirable persons” and thus effectively expelled them. “The pictures from Bucha testify to the incredible brutality of the Russian leadership,” she said in her statement. “We have to fear similar pictures from many other places that Russian troops have occupied in Ukraine.”
However, this measure will not stop there. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) has already announced further deliveries of weapons – and a tightening of sanctions.
Is the energy supply stop for Russia coming now?
It doesn’t look like it. Demands for an import ban are getting louder with every new escalation of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, but the German government fears massive economic damage and job losses if there is a sudden import ban. Especially if this should also include gas deliveries. SPD leader Lars Klingbeil and Vice Chancellor and Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) have just rejected such demands again.
Foreign Minister Baerbock also warns against exaggerated expectations of an immediate, complete energy embargo against Russia. “If you had a complete embargo tomorrow, if that would stop this war, then we would do it immediately,” said the Greens politician on the ARD “Tagesthemen”. Such an exit would drive the price of this war higher and higher. “But it wouldn’t mean that this killing will end tomorrow.”
A complete phase-out of fossil energy from Russia will not only be prepared, but “massively initiated,” Baerbock assured. This will be discussed in Brussels in the next few days.
Referring to the atrocities committed against Ukrainian civilians in Bucha, Baerbock said this made it terribly clear “with what brutality and inhumanity the Russian President is waging this war.” This underlines that this war must stop immediately. The fact that the Russian side is talking about a staging shows how many dimensions this war is being waged. “This is also a war of images, narratives, false narratives, lies.” It is not only shown on Russian television, but worldwide.
How do other EU countries feel about this?
At the EU level, Germany, countries such as Hungary, Slovakia and Austria are strictly against extending sanctions against Russia to the energy sector. Basically, they say that sanctions are counterproductive if they cause more damage to the initiator than to the intended target. It is still most conceivable that the EU countries would agree to stop importing coal from Russia. Germany no longer wants to buy “black gold” from Russia from the end of the summer anyway. Another argument against immediate energy sanctions, critics say, is that the EU would have few options for sanctions if Russia were to use weapons of mass destruction such as chemical warfare agents in Ukraine.
What other adjustments are there to the sanctions?
It is very likely that other Russian businessmen with connections to Putin will be included on the EU sanctions list. This would allow their assets located in the EU to be frozen. There could also be new sanctions in the financial sector and additional trade restrictions. The list of sanctions is already long. For example, certain Russian companies and banks were completely denied access to European markets and EU airspace was closed to aircraft.
What about further German arms deliveries to Ukraine?
The federal government has already delivered some weapons: anti-tank missiles, anti-aircraft missiles, machine guns and several million rounds of ammunition. So far, however, the willingness of the Ukrainian army to build up military equipment has also had its limits: the delivery of heavy weapons such as tanks, combat aircraft or warships was out of the question. Now the self-imposed restrictions could fall. “In my opinion, the delivery of military equipment and weapons should be continued without restrictions and on a large scale,” says Habeck, who is responsible for arms exports.
Is Germany now also supplying tanks to Ukraine?
The armaments company Rheinmetall has used Marder armored personnel carriers in the yard, which first have to be overhauled to be fit for war. The proposal: The Bundeswehr – plagued anyway by an economy of scarcity – could send its own tanks to the Ukraine and then get the others within a year. According to «Welt», Ukraine wants 100 of these tanks. The Ministry of Defense waved it off, because the tanks are planned for NATO obligations and are therefore part of national and alliance defense. So it remains to give up the Rheinmetall tanks. However, it could take months before they arrive in the war zone because of the necessary overhaul.
Are there other tanks?
It would also be possible to deliver 50 Gepard anti-aircraft gun tanks, which are located at the tank builder KMW from former Bundeswehr stocks. The Gepard has a turret with two 35mm autocannons mounted on a Leopard 1 chassis and is also capable of engaging armored targets on the ground. The training for this is less complicated than combating air targets in conjunction with other weapon systems.
What is out of the question?
Direct intervention in the war. Germany also agrees with its allies that no NATO soldier should enter the Ukraine because a confrontation with Russia and thus a third world war could then threaten.
Does the German government see the Bucha atrocities as war crimes?
Scholz spoke of a “crime by the Russian military” in his first statement on Sunday. He later added: “The murder of civilians is a war crime.” He also called for those responsible to be punished: “The perpetrators and their clients must be held accountable.” The Chancellor did not mention Russian President Vladimir Putin in this context. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock did that: “Putin’s unrestrained violence is wiping out innocent families and knows no bounds,” said the Green politician.
How can the perpetrators be punished?
The International Criminal Court in The Hague is responsible for this. It prosecutes individual suspects for war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide and has a mandate for the territory of Ukraine. Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan has already initiated investigations into war crimes in Ukraine and sent a team to the war zone. It is unclear whether the investigators have already traveled to Bucha. Prosecutors must first prove that war crimes were committed. This means, for example, that the victims of Bucha were actually defenseless citizens. This is indicated by the photos, and eyewitnesses confirm this.
Can Putin also be accused?
If Russian soldiers were actually the perpetrators, then they are subject to the official command structure. In that case, their commanders can also be charged. It would then have to be clarified, however, whether the military and political leaders like Putin knew about the war crimes committed by the soldiers. Even heads of state and government cannot invoke their immunity. But it is difficult to prove their responsibility. Only when the suspicion is sufficiently justified and supported by evidence can an international arrest warrant be applied for. However, it seems impossible that Russia would extradite the president to The Hague. A prerequisite for this would probably be a regime change in Moscow.