The UN mission MINUSMA has been trying to stabilize Mali for ten years. Under pressure from Mali, the UN Security Council has now decided to end the mission by the end of this year. That also affects the Bundeswehr – and also other UN missions?
The mission was ill-fated from the start: inadequately equipped and without effective self-protection, the UN staff quickly became the target of Muslim extremists. To date, more than 300 UN soldiers have died – making the mission one of the UN’s heaviest casualties since the Korean War.
Above all, however, Malians died, because the 13,000 UN forces did not manage to protect the civilian population. More than 3,800 people are said to have been killed in Mali in the past twelve months alone.
After Putsch turns to Wagner
It is an endless war that makes movement between many cities dangerous, especially in the east and north of the country. The displeasure of the population has grown over the years, also against the democratically elected governments, which recently only made a name for themselves with poor governance and corruption.
Military coups followed. Since the most recent one in May 2021, the country has been run by a military transitional government, which has been heavily criticized by the West. The new strongman, Colonel Assimi Goita, established contacts with Russia and has brought an estimated 1,000 Wagner mercenaries into the country to fight Islamist terrorist groups. The French military mission, on the other hand, was pushed out of the country.
When the UN published a report a few weeks ago about a massacre in which more than 500 people were killed with the alleged participation of Russian mercenaries, Goita had his foreign minister make it clear to the Security Council: “The mission has become part of the problem.” It must end immediately.
New uncertainty after the failed Wagner revolt
That was before the Wagner uprising in Russia. Now there are fears in Mali’s capital, Bamako, about military aid. Because Goita and his government put everything on one card with Wagner. Will Wagner continue to exist? Will the terms of military aid change?
It’s not officially discussed, but pro-government voices like Cheick Tidiane Diarra get to the heart of the concerns on social media: “If Russia were no longer able to supply us with ammunition and spare parts, more than 90 percent of the Malian military operations,” Diarra tweeted.
Soothing words from Moscow’s Foreign Ministry that they would continue to support the Allies in Africa did not take away the uncertainty.
The consequences for civil society
It is also unclear what the withdrawal of the UN mission means for Malian civil society. Mali is a country rich in culture, rich in natural resources, and yet about half of the people live below the poverty line. The UN mission, deficient as it was in the military, at least brought a limited number of jobs and training places.
And: It has facilitated development aid in some regions. “Development cooperation will become much more difficult,” says Ulf Laessing, head of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation’s Sahel regional program: “The German Society for International Cooperation and others have always used the Bundeswehr base in Gao to spend the night there and then from there look at projects. That will no longer be possible in the future.”
A spiral of poverty and violence
More help would be needed. According to UN research, the jihadist groups – not only in Mali – are gaining ground because social problems such as unemployment and poverty are increasing, also due to increasing violence. Most of them can hardly be said to be warriors of faith.
A spiral has been set in motion that 1,000 unscrupulous Wagner mercenaries will not stop if 5,000 French soldiers and 13,000 from the UN have failed.
It is more likely that the number of deaths will continue to rise – and the number of refugees, many of whom are already pushing beyond the country’s borders. Neighboring Niger, the next target of German military aid, is already feeling the effects.
The premature end of the Mali mission leaves the West at a loss. After the failure of the international community, the question is: what remains? Ulf Lessing believes: “It’s a bit of the beginning of the end for these major peacekeeping missions. It’s an era that is coming to an end.”