China is furious with Russia after its consulate in Odessa was damaged in an attack and the grain deal with Ukraine was suspended. Beijing is now increasingly looking for proximity to Kiev.
Munich/Beijing – The damage is not great, but the anger is all the greater. “The sovereignty of China must not be easily violated,” wrote a user on China’s social network Weibo. “One wonders if that was intentional,” speculates another. Earlier it became known that on Thursday in the Russian attacks on Odessa the Chinese representation in the Ukrainian port city was also affected. “An explosion occurred near the Chinese Consulate General in Odessa, and the blast wave damaged part of the walls and windows,” the Foreign Ministry said in a statement Beijing.
Images shared on Weibo show a broken window pane and some peeling paint. Apparently, none of the consulate employees were injured in the attack, because they were “evacuated a long time ago,” according to Beijing’s foreign office. One follows the developments and stays “in contact with the parties concerned,” it said.
It is doubtful whether the incident in Odessa has what it takes to permanently damage the “rock-solid” friendship between China and Russia. Nevertheless, the cracks in the relationship between the two neighboring countries are becoming ever clearer. China, for example, expressed its anger at the Russian announcement that the grain agreement with the Ukraine to let expire. Grain has not been shipped from Odessa across the Black Sea since last Monday; on the same day, Beijing said it hoped that the agreement would be “fully” implemented again – almost a frontal attack on Moscow by Chinese standards.
Russia’s attack on Odessa: Exports to China also affected
With good reason: although around 18 percent of the world’s population lives in China, the country only has around nine percent of the world’s available arable land. Large quantities of food must therefore be imported from abroad. Almost 30 percent of Chinese maize imports come from Ukraine. “Without imports from Ukraine, prices on the domestic market will increase,” she said South China Morning Post an agricultural analyst from Beijing.
The recent Russian attacks on Odessa have been loud Volodymyr Zelenskyy also destroyed 60,000 tons of agricultural goods intended for export to China. “That means everyone is affected by this Russian terror,” the Ukrainian president said on Wednesday.
The recent visit to Beijing by Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Economics on Friday made it clear how serious the situation is in China: Taras Kachka, who was received by China’s Deputy Minister of Commerce Ling Ji, was the highest-ranking visitor from Ukraine that Beijing has received since the beginning of the war. China wants to import more “high-quality products” from Ukraine in the future, it was said after the meeting in Beijing. The People’s Republic is currently struggling with droughts and floods, which is further aggravating the supply situation.
Russia after the Wagner coup: China fears an unstable neighbor
In addition to China, countries in Africa and the Middle East are particularly dependent on Ukrainian food exports. In other words, countries with which Beijing has traditionally maintained good relations – and who know the influence China has on its junior partner Russia. Should China, which always presents itself as a responsible player on the world stage, allow Vladimir Putin to continue: It would also be for the head of state Xi Jinping a loss of reputation.
Beijing is not only concerned about the end of the grain agreement, but also about the attempted coup by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner mercenaries. The fact that the mercenaries were able to march unhindered towards Moscow either shows that Russia is not capable of acting or that the Wagner people have supporters among Russia’s elite, Eastern Europe expert Sebastian Hoppe said in a recent interview with the Munich Mercury. “Both of these are detrimental to China’s relations with Russia.”
The last thing China wants is an unstable neighbor. After all, both countries share a 4200 km long border. This also means that if China actually wants the war to end quickly, as the leadership in Beijing has always insisted, then without a complete collapse of the Putin regime. This is one of the reasons why Beijing finally decided Western sanctions against Russia does not grow, but even expands the trade relations.
China and Russia continue to work together, including militarily
Customs data released on Tuesday showed that Chinese imports from Russia grew 19.4 percent in the first half of 2023 compared to the same period last year; China’s exports to Russia even rose by 78.1 percent. China appears to be filling the void left by Western companies pulling out of Russia, exporting cars, cellphones and computers to the country – “but not the more advanced technology that Russia lacks,” according to a recent study by the US think tank Atlantic Council.
At the same time, China shows no signs of ending military cooperation with Russia. On Thursday, both countries started four-day military maneuvers in the Sea of Japan to “further increase strategic cooperation between the two armed forces,” according to the Defense Ministry in Beijing.
When dealing with Russia, China seeks closeness and distance in equal measure. Should Putin in Ukraine war but continue to hurt Beijing’s interests, the patience of the Chinese is likely to run out at some point.