Less than 48 hours from the first round of the presidential election, the gaps within the top three are tending to narrow. This is the main lesson of the survey carried out on April 8 by Ipsos Sopra Steria for The world. For this survey, 10,425 people were questioned, according to the quota method. Voting intentions for April 10 are calculated from respondents “certain to vote having expressed an intention to vote”, or 7,321 people. The margins of error for the first round are very low, between 0.2 and 1 point.
Four points now separate Emmanuel Macron (stable with 26.5% of voting intentions, margin of error of plus or minus 1 point) from Marine Le Pen (who gains one point and reaches 22.5%, same margin of error ). Jean-Luc Mélenchon, solid third man of this election, continues its dynamics. The candidate of the Popular Union thus progresses by 1.5 points in four days and goes from 16% to 17.5%.
Far behind are the other far-right candidate, Eric Zemmour (9%, margin of error of plus or minus 0.7 points), the Republican candidate, Valérie Pécresse (8.5%, margin of error plus or minus 0.6 point), then the ecologist Yannick Jadot (5%, margin of error of plus or minus 0.5 point).
All the other candidates collect less than 5% of the voting intentions. They are, in order, Fabien Roussel (3%, margin of error of plus or minus 0.4 point), Nicolas Dupont-Aignan (2.5%, same margin of error), Anne Hidalgo and Jean Lassalle (2%, margin of error of plus or minus 0.3 point) and finally the Trotskyists Philippe Poutou and Nathalie Arthaud (respectively 1 and 0.5 point, margin of error of plus or minus 0.2 point ).
These results confirm several things. First of all, Jean-Luc Mélenchon knew how to embody a “useful vote” on the left. The deputy of Bouches-du-Rhône has long theorized “the mouse hole” to qualify for the second round. Understand: an addition of favorable circumstances. And it is the case this year. The “rebellious” had a good campaign, his opponents on the left are weak and divided and the outgoing president entered the race late. Above all, the real boon for him was the division of the extreme right which, mechanically, lowers the entry ticket for the second round. All the energy of the “rebellious” has therefore been, since the withdrawal at the beginning of March of Christiane Taubira for lack of the necessary sponsorships (and who declared on Friday that she would vote for Mr. Mélenchon), to present the candidate of the Popular Union as the only one capable of beating the extreme right at the post and thwarting all predictions. Because the electorate on the left seems exhausted from internal quarrels and aspires not only to union but also to weigh in the national political debate.
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