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Netherlands: Red Green, first woman or right winger Wilders?
According to polls, the Islamophobic politician Geert Wilders is on the rise. photo
© Peter Dejong/AP/dpa
After 13 years under Prime Minister Rutte, the Dutch are ushering in a new political era. A close race is expected in Wednesday’s election. For the first time, the right-wing populist Wilders senses an opportunity.
With the election of a new parliament on Wednesday, the Dutch are setting the course for a new political era after 13 years under the right-wing liberal prime minister Mark Rutte. An exciting head-to-head race is expected when the approximately 13.3 million eligible voters re-elect the 150 representatives.
For the first time, right-wing populist Geert Wilders (60) and his Party for Freedom (PVV) could become the strongest force in the second chamber, which is comparable to the German Bundestag. Just two days before the election, Wilders’ numbers in the polls skyrocketed. Polling stations close at 9 p.m. Then the first forecasts are expected.
However, the chances of the right-winger becoming the new head of government are slim. Hardly anyone wants to work together in a coalition under Prime Minister Wilders. And according to the polls, no party can win an absolute majority. Only four parties each received more than twelve percent of the vote.
Yesilgöz wants to be Rutte’s successor
The right-wing liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) is roughly on a par with the PVV. Top candidate Dilan Yesilgöz (46) wants to succeed her party colleague Mark Rutte and thus become the first woman to head the government in The Hague. Yesilgöz does not rule out working with the right-winger Wilders. And in doing so, according to election observers, she made Wilders’ PVV socially acceptable.
According to the surveys, the Social Democrats and the Greens also have a chance of success. They are running as an alliance for the first time and want to prevent the feared shift to the right with their top candidate, former EU Commissioner Frans Timmermans (62).
Election researcher: 70 percent of voters still undecided
The outcome is hard to predict. “Around 70 percent of voters are still undecided,” said election researcher Peter Kanne from the I&O Research Institute. “Many will choose strategically.” The election researcher expects right-wing voters to vote for Wilders and his tough anti-migration policy in order to force a coalition that is as right-wing as possible. On the other hand, other voters would now consider voting for the red-green alliance in order to prevent a coalition with Wilders.
Wilders was particularly mild during the election campaign. So he put his controversial positions against Islam on hold. “It’s not a priority now,” he said. “I am available as Prime Minister.” But his party program remains clear and calls for a ban on mosques and the Koran as well as “Nexit”, the Netherlands’ exit from the EU.
Presumably, at least three parties will have to come together to form a coalition to achieve a majority. Observers are already expecting extremely difficult coalition negotiations – regardless of the election result. After the previous election, in March 2021, it took almost ten months until the right-wing liberal Mark Rutte was able to present his fourth cabinet.
Center-right coalition collapsed after 18 months
But in the summer, after just 18 months, the center-right coalition collapsed due to the dispute over migration policy. Rutte then announced his departure from national politics. He has been prime minister in the kingdom for about 13 years now and wants to remain in office until a new government is formed.
The topics of this election campaign were migration, housing shortages and poverty. The right-wing parties in particular promised to drastically reduce the influx of migrant workers, refugees and also foreign students.
The election is overshadowed by a major crisis of confidence. Citizens attest that the state and politicians have failed in migration, the health system, housing and social security. That is exactly the topic of the former Christian Democrat Pieter Omtzigt and his new party “New Social Contract”. He wants to advocate for a new leadership culture and is considered credible by many voters. He is also predicted to be successful in the elections and thus play a decisive role in forming a government.