To the right of the CSU, the AfD has firmly established itself in Bavaria. And the Free Voters are also successfully courting right-wing conservative voters. For the CSU this means: baking smaller rolls.
Prime Minister Markus Söder’s CSU clearly became the strongest force in the state elections in Bavaria – albeit with a historically weak result. The Free Voters with top candidate Hubert Aiwanger, on the other hand, are gaining significantly according to the first projections from ARD and ZDF.
Both parties can continue their government alliance as intended. The right-wing AfD also recorded a big gain, while the Greens lost slightly. The FDP is sinking and is likely to fail clearly at the five percent hurdle and be thrown out of the state parliament.
According to the projections, the CSU comes to 36.7 to 36.9 percent. This means that the party, which has been the head of government in the Free State for 65 years, falls below its disastrous result from 2018 (37.2 percent). Even then it had fallen by more than 10 points.
The Free Voters improved significantly to 14.0 to 14.1 percent (2018: 11.6). The Greens lost slightly to 15.6 to 15.9 percent and did not come close to their record result of 17.6 percent from 2018.
The AfD gains strongly to 15.1 to 15.8 percent (10.2). The SPD, on the other hand, only achieved a meager 8.4 to 8.5 percent (9.7) – this would be the worst result ever in a Bavarian election.
The FDP is likely to miss entry into parliament with 3 to 3.1 percent (5.1). Voter turnout is reported to be 72.5 to 76.0 percent; In 2018 it was 72.4 percent.
According to forecasts, the CSU will receive 83 to 84 seats in the state parliament. The Free Voters have 32 seats and the Greens have 35 to 36 seats. The AfD gets 34 to 36 seats, the SPD 19 seats.
CDU General Secretary delighted after state elections
CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann is very satisfied with the performance of the CDU and CSU in the state elections. “Markus Söder ran a great election campaign,” said Linnemann on ARD about the CSU leader. This now has a government mandate in Bavaria.
He doesn’t want to shake up the schedule for nominating a Union candidate for chancellor. The fact remains: “After the summer, in early autumn, we will make this decision,” said CDU General Secretary Carsten Linnemann on ZDF.
The chairman of the CSU state group in the Bundestag, Alexander Dobrindt, sees a clear government mandate for the CSU based on the forecasts for the Bavarian state elections. “The coalition has been confirmed,” said Dobrindt on Sunday evening on ARD. The CSU has been able to make further gains in the past few weeks. “And that’s why the government mandate clearly lies with the CSU.” Dobrindt spoke of a good result.
Kühnert: Bitter evening for the SPD
SPD General Secretary Kevin Kühnert sees the results of the state elections as bitter for his party and for the traffic light coalition. “We are expressly not the election winners this evening,” said Kühnert on ZDF. The three parties in the traffic light coalition would have lost in both federal states.
“We should all recognize the signals together in the traffic light coalition: There is also a message for us in this election result,” said Kühnert. He said on ARD that one must recognize that “the general mood is weighing on people’s minds and that more orientation is needed.”
Nouripour: Greens stable
The Green Party leader Omid Nouripour describes his party’s election results in the state elections as stable. The Greens hoped to become the second strongest force in both elections, Nouripour said on ARD. The Greens stand for responsibility. According to forecasts, his party has lost.
He described the performance of the AfD, which has made gains in both countries, as “shocking”. This is also a task for the traffic light coalition to regain trust.
Despite the Greens’ losses, federal chairwoman Ricarda Lang speaks of stable results. “These are stable results, even if they are not what we might have wanted,” said Lang on ZDF after the first forecasts. This is a good basis for the future. It is with concern that all three traffic light parties, i.e. SPD, Greens and FDP, were unable to make gains.
Free voters with a plus despite the leaflet affair
Free Voters leader Hubert Aiwanger is satisfied with the first forecast for the Bavarian state elections. “14 percent would be quite good,” said Bavaria’s deputy prime minister on Bayerischer Rundfunk shortly after the polls closed. He assumes that the value for the Free Voters will continue to rise, but it is already an excellent result. “We are satisfied,” he said.
Aiwanger and his Free Voters gained significantly – despite or because of the affair surrounding an anti-Semitic and inhumane leaflet that was found on the now 52-year-old’s possession when he was at school.
At the end of August, his brother was accused of being the author. After a few days, Aiwanger apologized and emphasized that he had never been a Jew-hater. At the same time, however, he went on a counterattack and complained about a political campaign against him. In surveys, the Free Voters then experienced a surge.
Despite great pressure, Söder stuck to Aiwanger as economics minister and deputy head of government – in order to maintain “proportionality” and probably also because of the desired new edition of the government coalition. Söder has repeatedly categorically ruled out a possible black-green government alliance.
Weidel: AfD results also sign of dissatisfaction
AfD leader Alice Weidel is delighted with her party’s performance. Weidel spoke on ARD about record results.
“Our politics proves us right,” said Weidel. She also viewed the strength of her party as a sign of people’s dissatisfaction with the federal government’s “ban policy”. With regard to the federal government, she spoke of a realistic chance of participating in government in 2025.
FDP top candidate Hagen: Sad day for liberalism
From the perspective of FDP top candidate Martin Hagen, election Sunday is a sad day for liberalism in Bavaria. “The FDP has missed its election goal of returning to the Bavarian state parliament for the first time since 1978,” said Hagen shortly after 6 p.m. at his party’s election party in Munich. “In heated and polarized times, we were unable to get our message through to voters.”
As the top candidate, he “of course” takes responsibility for the election results, said Hagen. “We will comprehensively analyze the causes of this defeat in the party committees.” Now keep your fingers crossed for your party friends in Hesse, because “it’s still a long election evening for them.”
FDP General Secretary Bijan Djir-Sarai reacts briefly to his party’s poor performance. “From the FDP’s point of view, the currently available figures from Bavaria are disappointing. Things remain exciting in Hesse,” he said in Berlin.
The FDP committees would evaluate the results of both state elections tomorrow, said Djir-Sarai. “We will also analyze and discuss these results within the coalition.”
Traffic light parties SPD, Greens and FDP in the red
All three parties in the Berlin traffic light coalition made up of the SPD, the Greens and the FDP suffered losses compared to the election five years ago – analogous to the current poor polls at the federal level. At the end of September, Söder mocked the regional associations as “euphoric traffic light clappers”.
Around 9.4 million people were eligible to vote in the largest federal state in terms of area, which is roughly the size of Ireland. There is something special about the right to vote. For the distribution of seats, all first and second votes are added together and converted into mandates. This means that the first vote is just as important for the distribution of seats as the second vote.
The election result could be a dampener for Söder’s federal political ambitions, which he himself has regularly rejected – at least if the CDU does not also ruin its elections by the time the Union Chancellor candidate is chosen in autumn 2024. As a reminder: The CSU used to regularly win absolute majorities, and with Edmund Stoiber at the helm it even achieved a two-thirds majority 20 years ago. The 40 percent mark is now almost out of reach.
The CSU discovered the migration issue during the election campaign
In fact, the CSU has long since found itself in a new era: it is not only the AfD that has established itself on its right. The Free Voters are also attracting more and more voters from the right-wing conservative spectrum. This worries many citizens: According to police reports, around 35,000 people were on the streets in Munich on Wednesday evening for a demonstration under the motto “Bavaria against the right”.
During the election campaign, the CSU also presented itself as decidedly conservative and, as in 2018, rediscovered the migration issue that had otherwise been deliberately ignored for a long time. While Söder’s predecessor Horst Seehofer had called for an upper limit for immigrants for years, Söder now demanded an “integration limit” of around 200,000 migrants entering the country per year.
The coalition possibilities
The Bavarian Green Party federal politician Claudia Roth appeals to the CSU to start talks with the Greens about forming a government after the state elections in Bavaria. Democrats should think together about “what the best government for Bavaria would be,” said the Federal Minister of State for Culture in Munich. Democrats should talk to each other and explore what would be best for the country, she said on Bavarian Radio television.