Elections: Analysis predicts strong shift to the right in European elections

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Analysis predicts strong shift to the right in European elections

According to a new analysis, the European elections in June are likely to be strong in many countries A shift to the right is coming. Right-wing populist parties will gain votes and seats in the EU, while center-left and green parties will lose them, according to a forecast published on Wednesday by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) think tank.

The analysis is based, among other things, on survey results for national elections and the parties’ vote share in the last national parliamentary election. According to the information, it also takes into account whether the parties are currently in government or opposition, which large political family the parties belong to and how long ago the last parliamentary election was.

According to the evaluation, populists critical of Europe are likely to be ahead in nine EU countries – including France, Italy, Poland and Austria. In another 9 of the 27 EU member states, right-wing parties will therefore end up in second or third place – including the AfD in Germany.

Increasing fragmentation of party systems

According to the forecast, the two largest political groups in the European Parliament – the Christian Democratic party family EPP and the Social Democratic S&D – will probably lose seats, but could still form a majority together with the Liberals and Greens. “This reflects the long-term decline in support for mainstream parties and growing support for extremist and smaller parties across Europe,” the authors explain. This is leading to increasing fragmentation of European party systems at both national and European levels. If the elections turn out as the think tank predicts, it could have far-reaching consequences for the EU’s political agenda, it said.

The European elections will take place on June 9th. In Germany, voters aged 16 and over can cast their votes.

dpa