As of: 09/27/2021 9:12 a.m.
A little disillusionment and great joy – the election result arouses mixed feelings among the Greens. Looking back shows mistakes, looking ahead gives self-confidence.
It’s 1:37 a.m. Winfried Kretschmann is leaving. Shortly afterwards, the rest of the green top management leaves the Sigmund Freud University in Berlin. What was the result? The question runs nowhere.
Seven hours earlier – across the street. They come together on the Columbiahalle stage – the green candidate for chancellor and the man who would have liked to be. Cheers in the hall. Annalena Baerbock could make it easy for herself now. And of course she first praised the party’s “historically best election result”. But she doesn’t stop there. Self-critical tones follow. She speaks of “my own mistakes – including mine”. The first green candidate for Chancellor admits: “We wanted more.”
And Robert Habeck also says in an interview with the ARD capital studio, they have “aroused hopes that we have not fulfilled”. And so this evening must leave the green party with mixed feelings.
With the best of conditions in the election campaign
Even if you want to avoid the term “historical” – the Greens had never entered a federal election campaign with a better starting position. At least that was how it looked until spring. The own poll numbers were constant at 20 percent. Since Chancellor Angela Merkel would resign voluntarily, there was no competition with an official bonus. The Union divided, the SPD weak. Climate protection had become a central issue.
Baerbock and Habeck had led the rowdy party to unprecedented unity. The Greens had formulated their claim to power quite openly: We play in first place.
So it seemed logical to send a candidate for chancellor into the race for the first time in party history. With the program and the candidate, the Greens are relying entirely on “change” and “new beginnings”. Annalena Baerbock: 40 years, without government experience. It could have been a chance if the people in Germany were ready for such a candidacy.
Loss of trust instead of plus points
It was a bet that apparently didn’t work out. After being nominated, Baerbock had to build trust, make himself known, and convince older voters as well. But that went completely wrong. Baerbock’s mistakes have been sufficiently described: income reported too late, a résumé corrected several times. Above all, a hastily finished book with many passages copied became a symbol. The result: the trust struck early.
This also left a clear mark on Baerbock. The uncertainty could be seen in her public appearances. And so, before the campaign even started, it turned into a brutal ride in the headwind. It took a long time for content-related issues to come to the fore again. In the TV three-way battles, she acted aggressively, but was able to score points in the surveys above all in the categories of sympathy and drive. The finding: nice, personable, certainly also professionally competent. But chancellor? Probably not.
Errors are not only with Baerbock
Collection of infratest dimap show that it was particularly unable to convince the older electorate. And the young are only a small part. Sure, there were – not publicly – discussions about whether things would have gone better with Habeck. The proof cannot be given retrospectively. In addition, it would be far too easy to put all the blame for the bottom line on the top candidate.
Federal managing director Michael Kellner admits “bad crisis communication”. “The party was at its limit – and over it,” said a party strategist that evening. And it was the entire party that in some places did not succeed in making its own positions understandable. Energy money as a social compensation for the rising CO2 price is just one example of this.
Strong position at the coalition table
And now? There is no euphoria to be felt at the green election party, but there is certainly no sad mood either. The view is now ahead. Jürgen Trittin, the top candidate in the 2013 federal election, sees the Greens in a “strategically good position”. Baerbock and Habeck will conduct the further negotiations together. “We both do that,” said Habeck. It depends on the “substance”. A traffic light could succeed, but that does not rule out talks in Jamaica either.
One strategy could be that the Greens and FDP first try to bridge differences in order to then drive the possible larger coalition partners. Habeck from Schleswig-Holstein knows such a constellation. But in particular a possible coalition with the Union and FDP is likely to trigger intense internal party discussions. If you ask around at the Green Youth, it already triggers discomfort and even resistance.
And then there would be the upcoming parliamentary group, which is likely to be much younger and more left-wing. The dream of a green chancellery broke on this first attempt. It doesn’t have to be the last. In the evening, Baerbock speaks of an “order for the future”. Four successful years of government participation could significantly increase the candidate’s fighting weight.