Election in North Macedonia: mood changing towards right-wing populism

A new president will be elected today in North Macedonia. The opposition right-wing populist candidate is clearly ahead in the polls. But the party of the Albanian minority could tip the scales.

Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova is 70 years old and a small, petite woman. According to polls, she will perform the strongest in the first round of the presidential election today. Incumbent Stevo Pendarovski of the Macedonian Social Democrats is seeking a second term in office.

But there is a change in the country in favor of the national conservatives. Because there is great dissatisfaction in North Macedonia, where the president is elected by the people. The economy is stagnating, there is a lot of emigration and North Macedonia’s accession to the EU has been dragging on for almost 20 years.

Non-partisans Law professor

She speaks with a firm voice in front of 50,000 enthusiastic supporters on the boulevard in front of the government building in the capital Skopje: “You are the source of our pride, and that’s why I’m standing here. And now I ask you: Are you proud of your president, of your prime minister on the President of Parliament?”

The independent Siljanovska-Davkova is a law professor at the University of Skopje and was nominated as a presidential candidate by the national conservative party VMRO-DPMNE.

“Macedonia should be proud again”

The party is considered right-wing populist, but is a partner of the conservatives, including the CDU, at the EU level. Your campaign slogan could come from former US President Donald Trump: Makedonija povtorno gorda – Macedonia should be proud again.

“We will be proud if we live in a decent state where students stay, where there is no longer a mass exodus,” says Siljanovska-Davkova. “We want to lead the country to new victories. Macedonia must be proud again.”

The national conservatives accuse the ruling Social Democrats of having betrayed Macedonian identity – for EU accession, which has so far failed to materialize. In 2019, Macedonia was renamed North Macedonia to please Greece.

And now Bulgaria is blocking accession negotiations because it demands that North Macedonia recognize the Bulgarian origin of its history, culture and language and include the Bulgarian minority in the North Macedonian constitution. The VMRO-DPMNE blocked this constitutional change in parliament.

President warns of consequences

Incumbent President Pendarovski is ten percentage points behind Siljanovska-Davkova in the polls and will most likely go into the runoff with her.

Pendarovski warns of a strengthening of the national conservatives: “That would mean that North Macedonia can no longer make progress on the way to the European Union. We waited 17 years to start the accession negotiations and we had made good progress. And then it blocked VMRO-DPMNE the constitutional change, and suddenly we are stuck again in the corner of the Balkans, in the corner of Europe.”

Does the Albanian Party decide?

But even if the national conservative candidate Siljanovska-Davkova is, according to forecasts, well ahead of Pendarovsi in the first round of voting, that does not mean that she will also become president. There are seven candidates and the Albanian parties have always tipped the scales.

Almost a third of all North Macedonians are ethnic Albanians. One of its most important politicians is Talat Xhaferi. He was until recently President of Parliament and is now leading the country into the parliamentary elections on May 8th as interim prime minister and head of government.

The law requires North Macedonia’s ruling party to resign shortly before the elections. Xhaferi and his Albanian center-left party DUI have governed with both, most recently with the Social Democrats and before that with the national conservative VMRO-DPMNE.

Xhaferi says his party will now only support someone who is willing to change the constitution in favor of the Bulgarian minority: “Are we moving forward or are we falling back on our path to the EU? That will be the central question of all negotiations after these elections “The one who is ready to move forward will be supported. The one who is not ready cannot count on support.”

In the last presidential election in 2019, there was a runoff election with the same duel: Pendarovski versus Siljanovska Davkova. Pendarovski was also behind in the first round of elections and then won with the support of the Albanian parties. But this time he is doing a little worse in the polls.