According to projections, the SPD will be by far the strongest force in the state elections in Lower Saxony. According to the research group Wahlen, the party of the incumbent Prime Minister Stephan Weil received around 32.7 percent of the votes. After heavy losses, the CDU is in second place with 27.5 percent. The Greens can increase their result compared to the last state election, 14.3 percent are predicted. The AfD can almost double its result and ends up with 11.8 percent, the FDP had to worry about entering the state parliament with five percent. The left fails with 2.9 percent at the five percent hurdle.
So far, Prime Minister Weil had governed in a grand coalition with the CDU. Their top candidate, Bernd Althusmann, most recently served as economics minister in the state cabinet. Both parties saw the grand coalition as an alliance of convenience that they would like to end after the election.
Weil’s goal is to forge a new red-green alliance. “The voters have given the SPD the government mandate and no one else,” said the Prime Minister on Sunday evening. According to the extrapolation, it could be enough for red-green. If the FDP does not get into the state parliament, the alliance would have a comfortable majority. If the Liberals enter parliament, there would still be a narrow majority of two seats.
Prime Minister Weil had governed with the Greens from 2013 to 2017, before the coalition lost its majority because a Green MP had defected to the CDU. If it is not enough for red-green, a traffic light alliance would also be conceivable if the FDP makes it into the state parliament. Challenger Althusmann, on the other hand, had speculated on two alliance options, a grand coalition under his leadership or a black-green alliance. According to previous projections, these two variants are not possible. Althusmann said he took “personal responsibility” for the defeat and would give up the CDU state presidency.
The election in the country with around eight million inhabitants also has an impact on federal politics. The election campaign was dominated by the big federal political issue these days, the energy crisis caused by the war in Ukraine and the question of what help the federal government is providing for citizens and companies. In view of the crisis, the traffic light coalition in Berlin had launched several relief packages with a total volume of 295 billion euros. At the same time, the government had made mistakes, for example with the failed gas levy. Against this background, the CDU had also declared the state elections to be a vote on the federal government’s crisis policy.
The vote in Lower Saxony is also of great interest to the Chancellor Party SPD because it did poorly in the previous state elections this year. Only in Saarland was it the strongest party and was able to appoint the prime minister. In Schleswig-Holstein and in the former social democratic stronghold of North Rhine-Westphalia, on the other hand, there were clear defeats. The looming victory in Lower Saxony also gives the party a little breathing room in the federal government. In the polls, it was around 18 percent across Germany, well below its result in the federal election.
The first reaction of the federal SPD was correspondingly positive. General Secretary Kevin Kühnert saw Weil’s victory as a sign of the strength of the Social Democrats. “If you are not strong yourself, you will not get such a result in times of crisis,” said Kühnert. He praised Weil for his election campaign and political style: he was a prime minister who acted confidently for his state, but also acted responsibly for the big picture. The traffic light coalition called on Kühnert to unite. People wanted the parties to move even closer together in times of crisis. “That must shape the cooperation of the traffic light even more.” However, it is questionable whether Kühnert’s wish will come true. The FDP could also interpret its weak result as having to gain more profile again. That would mean rather troubled times for the federal government.
The mood in the federal CDU is likely to deteriorate in view of the looming defeat in Lower Saxony. After the defeat in the federal elections, the party stabilized surprisingly quickly and won victories in Schleswig-Holstein and North Rhine-Westphalia, and it is the strongest force in federal polls. Party leader Friedrich Merz is nevertheless criticized by parts of his party, for example because of his statements about the alleged “social tourism” of Ukrainian refugees.
CDU General Secretary Mario Czaja expressed his disappointment after the election in Lower Saxony: “It’s not a nice result for us.” The CDU did not achieve its goals, the SPD, on the other hand, managed to “completely distance itself” from the national trend. Czaja campaigned to continue the grand coalition. “We would like a stable government for Lower Saxony,” he said.
In the afternoon, turnout in Lower Saxony was about the same as in the last state election in 2017. At that time, 63.1 percent went to the polls. The lowest voter turnout was found in Lower Saxony in 2008 at 57.1 percent.