Election in Hesse 2023: CDU ahead – forecast and projection – politics

According to an initial forecast by the elections research group, Prime Minister Boris Rhein’s CDU is far ahead in the state elections in Hesse. It therefore increased significantly and reached 34.5 percent. The AfD also gains a lot of votes and is in second place with 17 percent.

The SPD (15 percent) and the Greens (15.5) both lose. It is not yet certain whether the FDP (5) will enter the state parliament. The Liberals have to worry about whether they can get over the five percent hurdle. The Left (3.5), on the other hand, is unlikely to be represented in parliament again in the coming legislative period. The Free Voters (3.5) miss their first entry into the state parliament.

With his improved result, CDU man Rhein is likely to remain prime minister. He can certainly choose his partner: Although his party has governed Hesse with the Greens since 2014, Rhein did not want to commit to a continuation of the coalition before the election.

A black-red alliance would also have a mathematical majority. In terms of content, the conservatives are closer to the SPD in many respects than to the Greens, for example when it comes to internal security. In addition, after 25 years in opposition, the Social Democrats are unlikely to negotiate too hard in order to finally be allowed back into government.

However, the SPD is not particularly strengthened towards possible coalition negotiations. She had actually hoped for a celebrity bonus for top candidate Nancy Faeser during the election campaign. However, the opposite was the case: The Federal Minister of the Interior did not bring a breath of fresh air to Hesse, but rather problems with migration policy and the affair surrounding the dismissal of the former President of the Federal Office for Information Security, Arne Schönbohm. Her popularity ratings fell and she was never even remotely dangerous to Rhein in the polls. It is now questionable whether Faeser will remain Federal Interior Minister in Berlin despite the weak performance in Hesse.

Around 4.3 million voters were entitled to vote, of which almost 266,000 people who, according to the Hessian State Statistical Office, were allowed to take part in a state election for the first time.

The state election committee approved 21 of the 22 state lists submitted. The list for that Alliance C – Christians for Germany was rejected because the party could not produce the required 1,000 signatures of support. This means that voters in Hesse had two fewer parties to choose from compared to the last election.

The top candidates for the state election in Hesse in 2023 were: