While the Russian war of aggression is raging in Ukraine, the hot phase of the election campaign is just beginning in Serbia. On April 3, the Balkan country will elect a new parliament and a new head of state. It’s not an easy day for incumbent Aleksandar Vučić – he doesn’t want to alienate the EU and the US or lose favor with Russia.
The independent Belgrade newspaper Dana’s Vučić once described him as an actor, screenwriter and director all in one. He undoubtedly has the gift of making the home crowd feel like he is fighting tirelessly on all fronts for the good of his people. Especially in these difficult days.
Ever since the Kremlin ruler Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, Vučić has been doing everything in his power to maintain his tried and tested oscillating course between East and West. At first he was silent for days, then he declared that Serbia supports the territorial integrity of Ukraine. Vučić did not mention Putin, the main culprit for the tragedy, nor did he explicitly condemn the Kremlin’s campaign against the neighboring country. And Vučić made it clear that Belgrade would not support Western sanctions against Russia.
Serbia does not participate in sanctions
That’s not new. Serbia does want to join the EU, has been negotiating this with Brussels since 2014, has received almost three billion euros from the EU pre-accession fund alone in the past 15 years, making it the largest beneficiary in the region – but that makes sense when it comes to sanctions against rogue states or autocracies country not with.
Vučić’s behavior has long caused irritation in Brussels and Washington. At the beginning of March, there was an unexpected small reversal: Serbia supported a resolution of the UN General Assembly, which criticized Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and called on Moscow to withdraw. Apparently the Western pressure on Vučić had become too great to finally take a stand. In addition, Serbia probably did not want to belong to the small circle of Putin supporters in the UN. Four flawless dictatorships voted against the resolution: North Korea, Eritrea, Belarus and Syria.
No sooner had his diplomats in New York voted in favor of the UN resolution than Vučić expressed concern that an initiative to exclude Russia entirely from the UN was imminent. According to Vučić, this could have dramatic consequences for Belgrade, because Moscow, like Serbia, rejects Kosovo’s independence. As a veto power, Russia has decisive influence to block Kosovo’s admission to international organizations. Vučić did not provide any evidence for his claim that Russia would soon have to reckon with being expelled from the UN.
Putin is celebrated as a cult and art figure
What connects Serbia with Russia? There is often talk of the so-called Slavic brotherhood and the common Christian-Orthodox denomination. But the two countries are bonded even more by their basic distrust of the West. In a recent radio interview, political scientist and ex-diplomat Ivo Visković spoke of his compatriots’ “pathological love” for Russia: People admire Putin because he is an opponent of NATO, which bombed Serbia in the 1999 Kosovo conflict.
Since Vučić came to power ten years ago, Putin has been celebrated in Serbia as a cult and artistic figure. Several Serbian cities have given the head of the Kremlin honorary citizenship, and the tabloid media controlled by Vučić see Putin as a modern-day Hercules in the fight against the evil West. When Russian tanks crossed the borders of Ukraine on February 24, a Belgrade tabloid appeared with the headline: “Ukraine has attacked Russia!”
So far, Putin fans have marched twice on the streets of Belgrade – with Z signs, Russian flags, pictures of Putin and wooden crosses. The pictures went around the world. A solidarity rally for Ukraine, on the other hand, received less attention. A graffiti of Putin in Belgrade was daubed: someone wrote “murderer” above the original “brother” lettering.
The Slavic brotherhood can quickly degenerate into fraternal strife
The maneuvering of the Serbian government between East and West outraged several MEPs. In a letter, they call on the EU Commission to freeze aid for Serbia and to suspend accession negotiations. As soon as the EU closed its airspace to Russian planes, Air Serbia doubled the number of flights to Moscow and St. Petersburg. The reaction from Kyiv was harsh. Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine Emine Jeppar tweeted. “Earning money with Ukrainian blood is unworthy of an EU accession candidate.” Vučić then explained that the number of flights would be reduced to one per day.
Western security circles have been warning for years that Russia and Serbia are jointly operating a spy center in the southern Serbian town of Niš. Both countries reject the accusation and emphasize that it is a harmless center for disaster relief. According to the British magazine The Economist Serbian military spending increased by around 70 percent to $1.4 billion annually between 2015 and 2021. Russia and Belarus have given the Balkan country ten MiG-29-Fighter planes for free. Moscow is also supplying the Serbian army with tanks, helicopters and a tank-S1-Anti-aircraft system. But Belgrade’s security policy is not only focused on cooperation with Russia. In France, Serbia is buying Mistral missiles for air defense, and Serbian army personnel are taking part in joint exercises with NATO soldiers.
A spy affair from 2019 shows that the Slavic brotherhood can quickly degenerate into fratricidal strife: At that time, an anonymous source posted a video on the Internet that showed a Russian diplomat handing a Serbian officer a plastic bag with money. Vučić reacted indignantly and aghast: “I can’t see any logic in all this. Serbia is the only country that hasn’t imposed sanctions on Russia, has never voted against Russia, has never done anything to tarnish friendship with Russia. That’s why I ask my Russian friends, I asked the Russian ambassador today: why?”
Some observers in Belgrade doubt that Vučić will be able to continue his foreign policy tightrope walk after the elections in early April. It is considered unlikely that the divided opposition will win the elections. Last November, as a precaution, Putin gave his Serbian counterpart an election gift: gas deliveries at a preferential price, that is, $270 per 1,000 cubic meters. The Russian Gazprom group had previously asked for $790. The deal, which is very advantageous for Serbia, expires in the summer.
If Moscow does not end its war of aggression against Ukraine by then, the EU will hardly tolerate Serbia’s standing aside from sanctions. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock got down to business a few days ago after a meeting with Vučić in Belgrade: “Clear words and actions are now required,” she demanded. Anyone who shares European values cannot stand on the sidelines.