School starts again next Tuesday, and a total of around 8,200 girls and boys will then attend one of the secondary schools in the district. Almost 5,000 of these are in the four grammar schools and around 3,200 in the four junior high schools. There are also around 400 who attend a high school outside of the district, and almost 30 commute to attend a secondary school. This roughly corresponds to the number of students in recent years, with a slight decrease in the Realschule and a slight increase in the Gymnasium – for the time being. Because current forecasts assume that the high schools in the district will be fuller than ever before by the middle of the decade.
The G9 in particular increases the number of students
This is mainly due to the reintroduction of the G9, i.e. the ninth grade in high school. Starting with the 2018/2019 school year, the then fifth and sixth grades were converted to the new old system. Which means that for the first time at the beginning of the school year in autumn 2025 there will again be nine years at the grammar schools.
A record number of students is expected in Vaterstetten: almost 2150 by 2035.
(Photo: Christian Endt)
According to a forecast by the district office, this will also be clearly reflected in the number of students in the four high schools – albeit to different degrees. The students in Vaterstetten and Grafing have to move particularly closely together. For the Humboldt-Gymnasium in the greater community, it is assumed that there will still be 1,637 boys and girls in classes five to twelve in the new school year. The number of students in Vaterstetten should remain around this value in the coming years, the forecast expects a total of 1671 students for 2024. A year later, however, it should already be 1883, and this is where the additional grade makes itself felt. However, the number of students will continue to increase significantly in the following decades, at least according to the forecast: From autumn 2035 onwards, 2146 young people will be taught in the Vaterstetten high school – more than ever before.
There are also more and more students at the district’s oldest high school, the one in Grafing.
(Photo: Peter Hinz-Rosin)
The Grafinger Max-Mannheimer-Gymnasium will not reach a new record for the number of students – that was set in 2007/2008 with a total of 1713 girls and boys. Nevertheless, the growth in the coming years will also be considerable here: the value should increase from 1042 in the school year that is now beginning to 1130 by 2024, then the G9 jump to 1282 pupils will then also occur here, the number of which will then increase by 2035 to increase to a total of 1579.
Although growth at the Markt Schwabener Gymnasium is limited, the school is already clearly overcrowded.
(Photo: Peter Hinz-Rosin)
The increase in the number of pupils in the grammar schools in the two market towns appears to be somewhat more moderate. At the Franz-Marc-Gymnasium in Markt Schwaben, 1353 boys and girls are expected at the beginning of the school year, in Kirchseeon it is 1006. For both, the forecasts see moderate growth by 2024 to 1395 in Markt Schwaben and 1052 in Kirchseeon. Thanks to G9, the figure would rise to 1552 in the former and 1183 in the latter, by 2035 there would be 1606 high school students in the northern market town and 1322 in the southern market town. However, this growth is particularly high in Markt Schwaben, where the high school was originally planned for just 1150 students.
The youngest grammar school in the district in Kirchseeon is also slowly but surely becoming fuller.
(Photo: Peter Hinz-Rosin)
The number of pupils would look somewhat different if the planned grammar school in Poing were able to start by the start of the school year in autumn 2025. As is usual in such cases, so-called precursor classes would first be set up until the school building is ready for occupancy. The forecast assumes around 400 students in the first year, by 2030 the number would rise to around 1000, with 1099 students expected by the middle of the decade.
A new high school in Poing would bring relief, especially for the north of the district
However, according to the extrapolation, this would only have a significant relief effect for the grammar school in the neighboring municipality to the north. In Markt Schwaben, the increase caused by the G9 would not only be almost completely compensated for, in the following years the number of high school students would also drop significantly there: from almost 1400 boys and girls in 2024 to 986 in autumn 2035. That could result in a slight decrease in the number of students Poinger Gymnasium also for Vaterstetten: The G9 leap would be around 100 students lower and by 2035 the numbers would still be below the 2000 mark, albeit just under 1953.
The new grammar school could also have an impact on the number of grammar school commuters: without Poing there would be 586 in 2035 according to the forecast, with Poing only 341 pupils, a good 60 fewer than in the current school year. On the other hand, the new school will have no effect at all on the grammar schools south of the Ebersberg Forest – the statisticians do not expect a relocation to Poing, neither for Grafing nor for Kirchseeon.
The district council will probably decide later this year whether the schedule can be kept
However, it is still unclear when this can actually go into operation. The costs were estimated at around 64 million euros a few years ago, but now you would probably have to reckon with a three-digit amount. Whether the schedule can be kept as in the school forecast will probably be decided this fall when the district council approves the budget for 2023.
The secondary school in Vaterstetten remains the largest in the district.
(Photo: Peter Hinz-Rosin)
The situation at the Realschulen is a little less urgent – however, a steady increase in the number of pupils can be expected here in the coming years. A total of 1099 young people are to be taught at the largest, the one in Vaterstetten, in 2022. In the next two years, the number could drop slightly to 1054. After that, the forecast expects a steady increase until 2035 to 1156.
At the Ebersberger Realschule there are more and more students…
(Photo: Peter Hinz-Rosin)
… just like at the secondary school in Poing.
(Photo: Peter Hinz-Rosin)
There should also be a similar development at the Ebersberg Dr. Wintrich School and at the Poinger Dominik Brunner School: In the new school year there are 857 secondary school students in the district town, by 2035 the number will rise to 1006. In Poing there are currently 725, and according to the forecast by the middle of the next decade there will be 886.
The Lena-Christ-Realschule in Markt Schwaben is the only secondary school in the district where the number of pupils is expected to fall in the coming years.
(Photo: Peter Hinz-Rosin)
An exception is the Lena Christ School in Markt Schwaben, where there are supposed to be even fewer students in the coming years: Currently there are still 473, according to the forecast the number will drop to 420 by 2032, after which it should be by 2035 there will be a slight increase again to 443. In contrast to high school students, commuters apparently do not play a major role in Realschule students: there are 31 in the current school year, and the number should also be around this value in the coming years, 24 is expected in the forecast for 2035 .