Increasing costs, increasing uncertainties, but above all a lack of hope: Both the Bavarian Chambers of Crafts and Industry and Commerce see difficult times ahead for the economy in the Free State. Both presented economic surveys independently on Wednesday. In the trades, the food and construction industries in particular are looking to the future with growing pessimism.
“Anything is possible, from a cooling down to a real slump in the construction industry,” Franz Xaver Peteranderl, President of the Bavarian Crafts Day (BHT), is quoted as saying in a statement. In the quarterly survey, more than 80 percent of tradespeople rated the current business situation as satisfactory or good across all trades. In view of the high inflation – especially due to the high energy costs – and the general economic uncertainty, however, many assume a deterioration. This even applied to around 57 percent of businesses in the food trade and 41 percent in the main construction trades. Around 17 percent of construction companies also reported canceled orders in September.
The result of the business survey at the Bavarian Chamber of Industry and Commerce (BIHK) is even more drastic: There you can see the business expectations of the economy “in free fall”. The so-called BIHK economic index fell to 88 points, the worst value since the beginning of the Corona crisis in spring 2020. Companies are therefore planning fewer investments and job cuts. Across all sectors, there was a lack of cost and planning security in view of the energy crisis, inflation, fragile supply chains, a shortage of skilled workers and the economic slowdown in the EU and China. The current risk situation is “unprecedented” for the companies, said BIHK general manager Manfred Gössl. “We’re definitely going into a recession.”
In view of the poor survey results, BIHK and BHT renewed their call for more and more targeted relief for the economy. “In addition to adequate consideration of our companies in relief measures, it is important to us that small and medium-sized companies are not proportionately more affected by the costs of climate and energy policy than large companies,” said Peteranderl, President of the Craft Industry.
At the same time, in his opinion, all energy-related taxes should be put to the test. Relief options exist, for example, in electricity, gas and petrol prices. “We also need more speed in the expansion of renewable energies.” BIHK President Klaus Josef Lutz called on politicians to “quickly present realistic strategies for Germany’s energy security”. In addition, bureaucracy must be reduced, “more flexibility is the need of the hour”. Great hopes were also placed on new free trade agreements with the USA and Australia. According to Lutz, these would be “a strong signal of hope for the economy”.