Economy
IMK economists only expect growth of 2.1 percent
New buildings are being built in the Hanover region. However, IMK experts still expect moderate growth in Germany this year at best. Photo: Julian Stratenschulte/dpa
© dpa-infocom GmbH
At the end of 2021, the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (IMK) made a forecast for economic growth in Germany in 2022. This now had to be corrected downwards.
The economic researchers at the Hans Böckler Foundation only expect economic growth of 2.1 percent this year in a “baseline scenario” due to the Ukraine war and increased energy prices.
In its forecast in December 2021, the Institute for Macroeconomics and Business Cycle Research (IMK), which belongs to the union-related foundation, still assumed growth of 4.5 percent. For the inflation rate, the researchers forecast a value of 6.2 percent, mainly due to sharply rising energy prices and the consequences of supply bottlenecks. The number of people in work is expected to increase and the annual average unemployment rate to fall from 5.7 to 4.9 percent, as the institute announced on Tuesday in Berlin.
The Russian war of aggression abruptly blocked the economic recovery path, explained the scientific director of the IMK, Sebastian Dullien. “This affects many countries, but Germany in particular.” The economic picture for 2022 is now characterized by dramatically rising energy prices, extraordinarily high inflation rates, new strains on supply chains and great uncertainty. This slows down private consumption, foreign trade and the willingness of companies to invest. “Instead of a dynamic upswing, we will see moderate growth this year at best.”