Economic development: Traffic light expects recession in 2023

The federal government calculates ARD-Information for the year 2022 with growth of only 1.4 percent, in 2023 the economy could even shrink. The inflation rate could rise to eight percent.

The federal government is apparently assuming that the economic development will be significantly worse than at the beginning of the year. This is based on the key figures of the 2022 autumn projection, which ARD Capital Studio available exclusively.

According to this, the federal government only expects growth of 1.4 percent for 2022. That is 0.8 percentage points less than assumed in the spring projection. In the autumn 2021 projection, the government had even assumed growth of 4.1 percent.

2023 even worse

The prospects for 2023 look even bleaker. The federal government expects the German economy to shrink by 0.4 percent.

In addition, the federal government expects an even higher inflation rate. Instead of the 6.1 percent forecast in spring, consumer prices will rise by an average of 8.0 percent according to the benchmark figures.