Easing in China: hardly prepared for the Corona wave

After the relaxation of the zero-Covid policy, Corona is likely to spread rapidly in China. There is hardly any immunization, the vaccination rate is low and the health system is poorly prepared.

What had been indicated in numerous Chinese cities for days is now official for the whole country. The National Health Commission announced the new rules at a press conference: A ten-point plan provides for numerous simplifications in lockdowns, isolation, quarantine, compulsory testing and travel in the country.

It should be possible for infected people with mild courses to isolate themselves at home. So far, people have been taken to hospitals or central isolation facilities after a positive test. In the case of local outbreaks, entire residential areas or districts should no longer be cordoned off in the future. Citizens are no longer forced to show proof of a negative corona test almost everywhere using corona apps on their smartphones.

The decision comes as a surprise to many and does not seem planned. But the highly contagious omicron variant could hardly be stopped with the measures, and the numbers rose across the country. After almost three years of a strict zero-Covid policy, the economy is also in deep crisis and people are annoyed by the measures, two weeks ago there were protests across the country.

“This policy is messy”

In Beijing, they react differently to the recent easing: “We do what the state told us to do,” says a 71-year-old woman. “As a Beijing resident, I have no choice. I trust the government.” She and her husband went for a walk every morning in the morning and again after dinner. “We don’t have any mental stress. We wash our hands and gargle with salt water as soon as we get home. We’re in good spirits, no problems.”

Another woman in her 70s grumbles: “This policy is chaotic.” She was just in the hospital. “They said you could get Covid prevention drugs there, but there aren’t any. I don’t know what’s happening to this socialist country.”

A 28-year-old says the changes are “very good”. You don’t always have to wait in line for a test. “Before, I had to wait two hours in my apartment block for a test. The government has told us the virus is not as deadly now. Kind of like the flu.” Actually, he’s not really worried. “A friend of mine from Shanghai was positive, he was in the quarantine camp for a week and took medication, then everything was fine again.”

Covid is likely to spread at breakneck speed

It is the end of zero-Covid, even if the communist state and party leadership and the state media do not call it that. The term “zero Covid” is no longer used. Instead, it is pointed out that the omicron subtypes currently in circulation cause significantly milder courses than previous variants.

But they are also highly contagious, and Covid is now likely to spread rapidly in China. The official figures do not yet reflect this: they have even fallen recently, which is certainly due to the fact that there are no longer any mass tests. The number of unreported cases is likely to be many times higher. There are now many people in China who know someone who has Covid. That is new.

For most Chinese, Corona has only been present in the past two and a half years because of the strict measures. The virus is now hitting a population where there is almost no natural immunity.

Many vaccine skeptics among pensioners

Although China has a high vaccination rate overall, millions of older people in particular have not been sufficiently vaccinated. There are many vaccine skeptics among China’s pensioners, but they are particularly vulnerable. China is now trying to counteract this with a vaccination campaign.

Ben Cowling, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong, warns that the vaccine protection is also decreasing in many of those who have been vaccinated. China must urgently allow more than three vaccinations. “There should be a campaign for four doses and it should start now,” he said.

Around the world, countries using inactivated vaccines like China vaccinated four doses. As were countries that used other vaccines. “Especially older people and vulnerable groups should get a vaccination every six months,” says Cowling. This is not so important for younger people, but for the elderly and people with previous illnesses, the fourth vaccination “could make a big difference if the number of infections increases in the coming months”.

Only four intensive care beds per hundred thousand inhabitants

Another problem is that the healthcare system is inadequately prepared for a massive increase in Covid cases. In the People’s Republic there are only about four intensive care beds per hundred thousand inhabitants – in Germany there are more than 30. Critics accuse the Chinese state and party leadership of not using the time when there were few cases to treat the older ones in particular adequately vaccinate the population.

In addition, money was invested in mass tests and quarantine centers instead of in the health system. Instead of a planned exit from zero Covid, for example last spring, there is now a headlong exit in the middle of winter, when the virus spreads even more easily.