It will be “Intense, even lasting in the south”. It is in these terms, not very refreshing, that Meteo France describes the new “heat wave” which begins this Monday in the south of France, already affecting the Atlantic coast, the Southwest in general and the Rhone valley. Peaks of 37°C are expected this Monday and, since 4 p.m., 23 departments have already been on heatwave yellow vigilance.
A peak for next weekend and uncertainties
On Tuesday, in the same areas, the mercury will oscillate at its highest between 36 and 38 ° C, sometimes reaching, locally, 39 ° C. “On Wednesday, the hot weather will spread to the east, in particular the Centre-Val de Loire and they will reach the east of the country from Thursday”, specifies Matthieu Chevallier, forecaster at Météo-France. Friday will be the day of respite, with a noticeable cooling in the north, but not really in the south.
Temperatures will rise everywhere on Saturday, with scorching air coming from the Iberian Peninsula and “a real heat wave”, the peak of which is, for the moment, scheduled for Sunday, but which could last until Tuesday.
Is it unprecedented?
Unlike the abnormally early wave in June, this episode is not, a priori, anything exceptional: “of the 44 heat waves recorded since 1947, 25 started in July”, recalls Météo-France. The most significant in recent history being that of July 2019, from 21 to 26 more precisely. With peaks exceeding 40°C, records had been broken and it had reached, in terms of intensity, the memorable and sinister heat wave of August 2003 (from August 2 to 17, with records that still stand).
Towards longer summers
Nothing new under the sun, then? Unfortunately, yes. Climate change has been there. “Studies allow us to say that without climate change, these heat waves would have been less intense by 1.5°C to 3°C”, assures Matthieu Sorel, climatologist at Météo-France. He also notes a “change in the duration of the episodes, which will also become both earlier”, like last month, “and later”. In short, the summer will become long, very long.