Is Putin running out of gas?
Drone attacks on refineries: Ukrainians are systematically destroying Russia’s oil industry
Drone attack on a refinery in Ryazan Oblast, Russia.
© Reuters
Kiev successfully attacks oil and gas processing in western Russia. Refineries are ideal targets; twelve plants were hit in just two weeks. Ukraine wants to hit Russia’s raw material exports.
Ukraine has not had any successes on the land front for months, but a few weeks ago Kiev launched a drone offensive that is having a major impact. The drones can reach large parts of Russia – even Moscow and St. Petersburg are within range. Previous missions were primarily aimed at gaining PR. Putin was challenged in the information space and the fight is taking to Russian soil. Apart from that, the actual damage was rather minor.
That has changed since Kiev targeted Russian oil refineries. “These attacks are intended to cause real harm,” said Sergey Radchenko, a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. Because they have strategic implications. If the drone offensive continues, it could have a serious impact on Russia’s oil processing industry. Putin’s war machine is unlikely to run out of fuel, but Russia’s economy could experience shortages. And above all, exports of refined oil products could suffer. An export whose income finances the Russian war. Russia exports not only gas and crude oil, but also refined oil products. And maintains an entire fleet of so-called “ghost ships”.
Favorable target for drones
A refinery is something of an ideal target. First of all, it is static; due to the long duration of the approach, mobile targets are inaccessible to the drones. The oil then increases the destructive effect of the drone. The actual warheads are no more dangerous than a smaller bomb; on a highway it would leave a crater that could be filled in a few hours, but in a refinery the ensuing fire is far more destructive than the primary explosion.
As long as only tanks and pipes are hit, the damage can be repaired. But in a refinery there are central systems that are difficult to replace. In a special tower, the so-called rectification column, the crude oil is broken down into different products by heating. Such a system is much more difficult to procure again than a tank. Even if Russia finds a way to circumvent Western sanctions on spare parts, the refineries cannot be restored to the scale they burned.
Waves of drones are difficult to combat
Kiev uses the same method as Russia. Air defense fails against waves of cheap drones. It can proudly publish kill numbers every day, but 30 drones intercepted mean nothing if five more get through. In the last two weeks, twelve refineries have been hit by drones from the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), a source told Ukrainska Pravda. Former Gazprom manager Sergey Vakulenko wrote in an analysis that about half of the country’s refinery production is within the drone’s range.
You shouldn’t equate every hit with a complete failure of the system. But given the current success rates of the Ukrainians, the Russians are unlikely to be able to completely compensate for the damage in the medium term. The Russians will strengthen air defense around strategically important installations. That would be a success for Ukraine: any system that protects a facility in the hinterland cannot be used at the front. At the same time, the Russians will attempt to locate and eliminate the operation’s camps and command posts.