The US House of Representatives adopted an emergency funding measure on Saturday, a key step in fending off the paralysis of the federal administration, a dramatic turn of events a few hours before this dreaded “shutdown”.
The twist came after Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy earlier proposed a last-ditch attempt to prevent the shutdown, which could only pass with Democratic support.
This is what happened: the text was adopted with 335 yes (91 no) and must now go to the Senate. It provides for the administration to continue to be funded for 45 days.
If the measure is not definitively adopted, the world’s largest economy is expected to slow down from Sunday: 1.5 million civil servants will be deprived of salaries and air traffic will be disrupted, while visitors to national parks will find their doors closed.
The reason ? Neither chamber of Congress – neither the Democratic-controlled Senate nor the Republican-controlled House of Representatives – has yet managed to pass a budget bill to extend the federal state budget, which expires at midnight on the night of Saturday to Sunday (04:00 GMT Sunday). To be adopted, this text would have to pass both chambers.
“Think of the Americans”
Against a backdrop of disagreements between the two camps, but also between the conservatives themselves, Kevin McCarthy, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, proposed a last-minute solution on Saturday morning.
“I ask Republicans and Democrats to put their political differences aside. Think of the Americans,” urged Kevin McCarthy to the press.
His proposal “does not include a budgetary component for Ukraine,” he clarified.
The White House had initially demanded that the finance law passed by elected officials include $24 billion in military and humanitarian aid for kyiv. The budgetary crisis would therefore have direct repercussions on the war in Ukraine.
Aware of the risk of fatigue on the part of the great American ally, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky went to Congress last week to try to convince the United States to help him cross “the finish line” in the face of Russia.
Nearly a year before the presidential election, the two camps are blaming each other for this situation, which is very unpopular with Americans.
Pro-Trump elected officials blockade
“Some members of Congress are so divisive that they are ready to shut down the government tonight. This is unacceptable,” Joe Biden castigated Saturday on X (ex-Twitter).
The release of funding requested by the Democrats for Ukraine appears increasingly uncertain, given the direction the negotiations are taking behind the scenes.
A handful of Trumpist Republican elected officials refuse to release any new aid to kyiv, believing that these funds should be allocated to managing the migration crisis in the United States.
These lieutenants of Donald Trump, who have disproportionate power due to the very thin Republican majority in the House, had already pushed the United States to the brink of the political-financial precipice four months ago on the issue of raising the debt ceiling.
And they received orders from the former president, who could face Joe Biden in 2024, to “paralyze” the federal state unless they win their case on “all” the budget issues under debate.
Growth and GDP
Elected at the cost of numerous negotiations with the Trumpists, Kevin McCarthy even risks his seat in these negotiations. “You know what, if I have to risk my position to defend the American people, I will,” he assured Saturday, abundantly: “if someone wants to fire (me) because I want to be the responsible adult from the room, let him try.”
It was under the presidency of Donald Trump that the United States experienced its longest “shutdown”, during the winter of 2018/2019. According to several estimates, the country’s GDP was then cut by more than 3 billion dollars.
A few hours before the deadline, the country is preparing for a new total or partial closure of services. Officials began to be notified of the impending paralysis.
Most of America’s famous national parks like Yosemite and Yellowstone will close if no agreement is reached. Air traffic is also expected to be very disrupted since air traffic controllers and officials from the Transportation Security Agency (TSA) are affected.
And some recipients of food aid could be temporarily denied it.
Each week of “shutdown” could also cost 0.2 points of growth to US GDP in the 4th quarter, according to a note from economists at Goldman Sachs.