Podcast “The Situation – International”
Will NATO still be deterred if Trump wins the US election? Expert Mölling worried
Confident of victory: Donald Trump giving a speech at a pre-election party
© Alex Brandon / AP / DPA
According to military expert Christian Mölling, a return of Donald Trump to the White House would have serious consequences for NATO’s nuclear deterrent. The European nuclear powers are too weak for this.
It is not necessary for the USA to leave the Western alliance. It is enough for an American president to make it clear that he will not decide. “The fact of a non-decision on the use of nuclear weapons is the end of secured deterrence within NATO, because it rests solely on the USA; France and Great Britain play no role in this context,” said the research director of the German Society for Foreign policy. “They just don’t have the guts,” he added, referring to the European nuclear powers in the alliance.
Europeans have to organize protection
Mölling welcomed French President Emmanuel Macron’s offer to other Europeans to discuss the future of nuclear deterrence. “You have to think about an alternative – and you can do that at this point,” said Mölling. Ultimately it’s about how a credible strategy can be found. Because: “Deterrence takes place in the mind.”
He accused the Europeans of facing the consequences of the Americans’ dwindling commitment too late: “The announcement within NATO has been for a long time that we will only provide you with 50 percent of the capabilities. Finally come to terms with it.” In Europe, however, people allowed themselves to be lulled into a bit of a lull. “Joe Biden was the nice uncle from America,” said Mölling. “What happened there was a Valium for European self-precaution. And now everyone is looking at what’s coming in shock.”
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Mölling had little hope that Congress in the USA would still pass an aid package for Ukraine. Although this has serious consequences, it is a democratic decision that must be accepted. Chancellor Olaf Scholz will discuss in Washington how things can proceed. “Plan B is now starting, where we have some certainty that the aid package will no longer work,” said Mölling.