The Planning Association for the Outer Economic Area of Munich sees space for at least 180,000 additional residential units in the surrounding area. Assuming two people per unit, at least 360,000 more people could move in. This is the result of the latest study by the planning association on building land reserves in the Munich region. Unsurprisingly, the planners identify space reserves, especially in the surrounding area. In the Dachau district alone, the study puts the potential at 153 hectares.
According to the Bavarian State Office for Statistics, the region’s population will only increase by 225,000 by 2040. “Even if fewer people than before live in a household in the future due to demographic change, there will be enough space,” writes the managing director of the planning association, Christian Breu, in the conclusion of the study. In the most recent study in 2017, it was assumed that there were not enough residential building reserves. At the same time, it is not certain whether the reserves are really needed. Because the planning association has been finding for years that the population growth in the region is lower than forecast. If in 2015 it was still assumed that there would be a 15 percent increase by 2035, the expected increase by 2040 is currently just under eight percent.
The planning association sees the greatest potential along the S-Bahn branches, of which there are two in the Dachau district. Therefore, of the 153 hectares suitable for residential development, 62 hectares are within one kilometer of a train station and 45 hectares are between one and two kilometers away. In the town halls, however, the building land reserves, which are based on an examination of the land use plans, are not viewed with such optimism, for various reasons.
The surrounding area does not want to be a source of housing for Munich
“Dachau is actually opposed to unbridled growth,” explains Moritz Reinhold, the master builder at Dachau. Last year, the city council therefore made a fundamental decision according to which new buildings should be built primarily in the city centre. “We have a forecast of over 60,000 more inhabitants in the next two decades. And that without large building land designations in the outside area,” says Reinhold. Of course, the city has a few reserves in town, for example on the site of the former paper factory, where a new quarter for up to 2000 people is being built. The city council and administration are aware that even inner densification has its limits, where climate, water and quality of life have to be taken into account, emphasizes the city master builder, “life in the city must still be worth living”.
Dachau wants to build on inner-city areas first, says master builder Moritz Reinhold.
(Photo: Niels P. Joergensen)
However, it is not only for urban planning reasons that many town halls are stepping on the construction brakes. Because the requirement of “big politics” to create more and more living space causes problems. “This means that infrastructure is needed, and it first has to have counter-financing,” says Reinhold. It is already foreseeable that Dachau will need a few more daycare centers and probably a fifth primary school in the next few years.
“We have inquiries every day”
The statement by Michaela Felber, head of the Altomünster building authority, goes in a similar direction. The municipality with a good 8,000 inhabitants is located at the end of an S-Bahn line, and there is great pressure to settle. An area with a good 30 lots for semi-detached houses is currently being planned, as is a building land model with discounted lots for local residents and even apartment buildings. Limits are not only set by the expensive social infrastructure. “There are some development plans in the process, but the community is only involved to a limited extent,” explains Felber, head of the building authority. The demand for building land is much higher than the supply. “We have inquiries at City Hall every day, but we have nothing,” she says. Because most of the vacant building plots are privately owned and are often kept for the children.
In Karlsfeld, a building area is planned on the former Ludl site. Otherwise, the housing model boy pulls the emergency brake.
(Photo: Niels P. Jørgensen)
Even housing model Karlsfeld has now slowed down. At the general meeting of the planning association, which took place in Karlsfeld last November, Mayor Stefan Kolbe (CSU) complained about the enormous influx. Although it is the smallest municipality in terms of area in the district of Dachau, it now has 22,000 inhabitants, with the corresponding follow-up costs for the infrastructure. Currently, says building authority manager Günter Endres, only one larger new development area is being planned, the five-hectare Ludl site in the town center, where urban apartment buildings and businesses are to be built.
After all, the study by the planning association certifies that the surrounding area has already done its homework diligently, the possible residential building plots in the land use plans have increased. In order to support an easing of tension on the housing market, the municipalities would have to continue to identify residential building areas.