Dispute in NATO: Erdogan – a pragmatic provocateur

Erdogan threatens to veto Finland and Sweden’s NATO membership. The West reacted with outrage. The Turkish president is just playing a well-known game.

Turkish President Erdogan and his sense of situations – there it is again. It seems to work best when cornered. This was already evident at the beginning of the Russian war against Ukraine.

Turkey has good relations with both countries. One thinks Erdogan is stuck between the chairs. But he sits on an extra chair, that of the intermediary. He cannot stop the war. But he’s gaining weight internationally. Hardly anyone in the West dares to criticize the fact that Turkey, as a NATO member, does not share the sanctions against Russia. Instead, various visits from heads of state and government, even from the little loved neighboring country Greece.

Turkey raises demands

And now? Erdogan has long wanted to bring back Gülenists who fled, i.e. the followers of the Islamic preacher Gülen, whom he sees as the mastermind behind the attempted coup in 2016. Many had fled to other European countries. Erdogan wants to put them on trial in Turkey.

In addition, his spokesman said, Sweden and Finland should close offices of the Kurdish PKK, ban its activities and no longer tolerate members. According to state media, there are allegedly more than 30 extradition requests to the two countries.

Controversy over guns

And then Erdogan packs another very sensitive issue on top: arms deliveries for his country. NATO member or not – the West has had a hard time with this for a long time because it does not want the weapons to be used against Kurds, as was the case in 2019 with the Turkish offensive in northern Syria. Western Turkey experts warn again and again: Erdogan will not rest. If he doesn’t get weapons from the West, he gets them elsewhere. After all, he also bought the S 400 missile defense system from Russia before the war.

Erdogan is also driving his own armaments industry. One product: the Bayraktar drone, which he promptly sold to the Ukraine before the war. Now, according to experts, it is being used very effectively against Russia. But that’s not enough for Erdogan, he wants fighter jets from the United States, for example. The chances of that happening now are not bad.

West doesn’t take chances

In all these years, the West has not found a way to really slow down Erdogan. He allows himself to be overturned again and again by the Turkish president’s pragmatic about-faces. And in no dispute over the years has the USA, the EU or NATO allowed Erdogan to bluff.

The refugee deal is a good example. They even help Erdogan domestically. It goes down well with his supporters when he defies the big US and Europe.

Only the followers are fewer. Many Turks are finding it increasingly difficult to make ends meet due to inflation. Erdogan won’t win next year’s election with a sophisticated foreign policy, but only with a contented people. And he’s a long way from that. So far he hasn’t had a feel for the economic problems of the Turks.