interview
The EU Commission is trying to mediate in the dispute between Kosovo and Serbia. But their tactic of wooing Serbian President Vucic and luring them away from Russian influence isn’t working, says Balkans expert Bieber.
tagesschau.de: The EU is trying to mediate between Kosovo and Serbia. Does that work well?
Florian Bieber: The current role of the EU is very difficult because it actually has very little credibility. She has placed a lot of bets on Serbia in recent weeks. One gets the impression that the European Union is quite uncritical of Serbian President Alexander Vucic.
Apparently they’re trying to lure him away from a too-tight embrace by Vladimir Putin. Hoping that Serbia might even join EU sanctions on Russia. But trying to woo President Vucic risks being uncritical of Serbian politics and disproportionately critical of Kosovo’s politics.
To person
Florian Bieber is a political scientist and contemporary historian. As a professor at the Karl-Franzens University in Graz, he heads the Center for Southeast European Studies.
tagesschau.de: Is it really like that? Or isn’t that more of an argument from Kosovo?
Beaver: That seems quite obviously the case. One notices it also in the statements of the United States. In this respect, the policy of the USA and the EU is relatively clear. They really want to try to isolate Putin in the Balkans and bring Vucic to the western side. And Vucic uses this very specifically.
He is facing the biggest mass protests since he took office. There are many critical voices in Serbia regarding his policies. He uses this Western support to increase his own leeway. I think it is rather unlikely that he would cut all relations with Putin because of this. It is using this game between the great powers, as it has been doing for many years, to increase its own maneuverability.
“EU membership is no longer attractive enough”
tagesschau.de: In Brussels one hears that unlike his predecessors, Kosovar Prime Minister Albin Kurti is seen as part of the problem and not as part of the solution. Is that justified?
Beaver: Kurti is certainly a lot more stubborn and also a lot less willing to listen to his Western partners. He started his career by saying that Kosovo must make its own decisions and not listen too much to its Western partners. This stubbornness is a clear goal of his politics.
But you also have to consider that his predecessors were more likely to listen to the West because they themselves were corrupt and involved in war crimes and were therefore easier to blackmail. Kurti just can’t be blackmailed. And you have to ask yourself: is Western politics perhaps also part of the problem?
I think Kurti also behaved incorrectly in the current situation. But to believe that you simply have a compliant Prime Minister who does what you want is perhaps a somewhat misguided policy. I think people said too much: Kosovo is on our side anyway and will do everything we want.
tagesschau.de: The EU has been trying for years to bring Serbia and Kosovo closer together and is counting on a negotiated solution.
Beaver: The problem is that the EU no longer has the credibility it needs to really bring about a negotiated solution. Because at the beginning of the process there was the promise of faster EU membership. This means that if both states agree on normalizing relations, Serbia and Kosovo can join the EU more quickly.
It just doesn’t seem realistic today. In Serbia there is no longer a majority for EU accession. It is no longer a societal goal. And Kosovo cannot rely on one of the EU member states blocking the process again. This means that EU membership is simply no longer attractive enough for the states or no longer realistic enough to really have a positive impact on a negotiated solution. And with that, the EU has actually lost the most important argument to convince both states to make compromises.
“The EU cannot be replaced”
tagesschau.de: If the EU is not credible. Who else is going to do it?
Beaver: There is nobody else. The European Union is negotiating closely with the United States. Both pull together. That’s positive at the moment. This was not so during the Trump presidency, when the US did its own thing in the Balkans. But the problem is, the EU cannot be replaced. There is nobody else who could do it. The EU must become more credible.
This means that the prospect of accession must become more real. This is important, not only for Serbia and Kosovo. This is also important with regard to Ukraine. You can’t make a realistic offer of accession to Ukraine if you can’t integrate the Western Balkans. And then clear words are needed. That you really identify more clearly what the problems are, who is responsible, set clear goals and then also offer clear rewards. The EU needs to do its homework better to really be a credible mediator.
The interview was conducted by Merle Tilk, ARD studio in Brussels