Diplomacy: “Good Cop, Bad Cop”?: Macron and von der Leyen in China

diplomacy
“Good Cop, Bad Cop”?: Macron and von der Leyen in China

The differences are evident everywhere. Emmanuel Macron praises China’s position paper on the Ukraine conflict as an interesting “peace plan”. Ursula von der Leyen rejects it as “simply not a viable plan”. The EU Commission President warns of economic dependence on China and wants to minimize risks. France’s President wants to expand the business rather. If his plane lands with a lot of pomp at Beijing Airport, von der Leyen prefers to fly straight. And while China’s state media pays tribute to Macron’s state visit, von der Leyen is barely mentioned.

But both leaders agree that Europe needs to talk to China. Macron had invited the President of the Commission to take part in his talks with head of state and party leader Xi Jinping on Thursday. Some speculate about “good cop, bad cop” split roles. But while this tactic is often seen as promising, China is only showing European disunity again, which it has always known to exploit by playing the actors off against each other.

Beijing launches charm offensive

China views Europe solely through the lens of its geopolitical rivalry with the US. Beijing is also convinced that the Europeans will dance to the tune of the Americans. “That’s strange,” said a European diplomat. There is “zero understanding” of what the alliance between Europe and the USA means. Beijing has now launched a charm offensive to drive a wedge between Europeans and Americans. Von der Leyen rejected such attempts in Beijing: “The transatlantic ties are strong and have been based on trust and deep friendship for decades.”

Macron, on the other hand, was by no means conspicuous by his criticism of China, and held back his condemnation of Russia. France’s President was rewarded with special attention. Xi Jinping met him twice – in Beijing and then again on Friday in the southern Chinese metropolis of Guangzhou. Overall, they spent many hours together. Both see the state visit as an opportunity for a fresh start after a three-year pandemic break – as if nothing had happened.

Relationship worse than ever

The relationship is worse than ever: there are differences not only about the alliance with the aggressor Russia, but also about the suppression in Hong Kong, the persecution of the Uyghurs and Tibetans, the territorial claims in the East and South China Sea, China’s armament and threats against democratic Taiwan, insufficient market opening or the use of trade as a means of political leverage.

The Chinese side dismissed the critical China speech by the EU Commission President, who found much clearer words than other top EU politicians a week ago. “I felt like two people were arguing,” commented China’s Ambassador to Brussels, Fu Cong. “This ambiguity means that Europe has not formulated a coherent policy towards China.”

The diplomat may not have heard the warning shot. Macron may have French interests, but the Commission President is working on the new China strategy for the entire European community. “China’s leadership is very worried about what’s coming,” say EU diplomats in Beijing. A China strategy is being worked on not only in Brussels, but also in Berlin, which should mark a turning point: no decoupling, but risk minimization and a much harder line.

She has no illusions about Xi Jinping: “Far from being deterred by the cruel and illegal invasion of Ukraine, President Xi maintains his “unlimited friendship” with Putin,” von der Leyen said in her widely acclaimed speech. In Beijing, the head of state and party leader let the visitors from Europe run up. Instead of wanting to use his friendship with Putin to finally bring about peace in Ukraine, he retreated to well-sounding appeals. Foreign critics have long accused him of calling for peace but doing nothing for it to be “simple and cheap”.

For von der Leyen, China’s dealings with Russia will be a “determining factor” in relation to Europe. China has changed, has become “more repressive at home and more self-confident abroad”. “The goal of the Chinese Communist Party is systemic change in the world order with China at the center.”

“Business as usual” on Macron’s trip

Macron’s trip seems more like “business as usual”, especially as Airbus and other large companies seal their deals in the old manner. The aircraft manufacturer will set up a second assembly line at its plant in Tianjin. Macron also advertised that he wanted to revive the investment agreement with the EU that was put on hold three years ago because of Chinese sanctions against EU parliamentarians – although von der Leyen and EU diplomats in Beijing describe the agreement as long outdated.

“We should remember that attempts to hold Russia back by offering an economic partnership have failed,” Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis warned. “Putin was actually encouraged, not convinced, by our flexibility. Similar tactics would also encourage China. Let’s not make the same mistake twice.” While Macron dined a second time with Xi Jinping in Guangzhou on Friday evening, von der Leyen had long since turned his back on China.

dpa