Probability calculators shouldn’t have been surprised. Of course, in their calculations, they had shown FC Bayern’s participation in the cup final as the most likely variant, depending on the course of the tournament then in a duel with the eternal pursuer Borussia Dortmund. There is at least one other scenario for each season. In this, an important cup principle called “Favoritenfallen” is taken into account, which is also used in practice every few years. In such a case, just as an example, Bayern could lose 0:5 in Gladbach in the third round of the cup and Dortmund could also be eliminated from the competition a little later.
This cup season is such a cup season. In principle, it would have previously opened up the possibility of a club logo combination that could have appeared on the scoreboard of the Berlin Olympic Stadium, which today could hardly have been foreseen to the point of being crazy. Schalke versus Werder? Nuremberg against HSV? These meanwhile second-class traditional brands can list a total of 18 cup triumphs in their club chronicles, a remarkable number that reveals little about current perspectives. Instead, the endgame slots of 2022 will be occupied by RB Leipzig and SC Freiburg, and yes, dear Freiburgers and dear Mr. Streich, this is the obvious result of a longer ongoing development.
Gone are both the leveraged clubs and those that self-optimize
Because the old establishment is increasingly being pushed out by a new generation of successful clubs, which can be roughly divided into two types and occupy the top spots in regular league operations. On the one hand, there are artificial products that are partly externally financed and receive their subsidies from a shower manufacturer (RB), a billionaire (Hoffenheim) or a car company (Wolfsburg). At times, such a club can slip into the relegation battle, see Wolfsburg this season. However, their basic trend is upwards.
The second type is a rather new phenomenon, which undoubtedly includes Freiburg, but also 1. FC Union Berlin, who were only narrowly eliminated against Leipzig in the end. What these clubs have in common is that they have optimized their location themselves, with coaches that fit the environment and squads that have been put together according to clear principles. Moreover, they do not sabotage their few real locational advantages (quietness, patience, frugality) themselves by trumpeting that they must now permanently take the place of the once established.
However, they no longer pass as a one-hit wonder. And that’s why nobody should be surprised if Freiburg wins the cup and 1. FC Union is in the final next year.