Despite the tense situation: Austria sees no danger of a blackout

The Austrian grid operator APG sees little risk of a power shortage in winter and only risks to security of supply in extreme cases. Why do the stress test results look different than in Germany?

Austria’s federal government and grid operators see no increased risk of a power shortage or blackout this winter. The situation in the energy industry is tense but not critical, according to Austria’s Environment Minister Leonore Gewessler (Greens) together with the Austrian grid operator APG (Austrian Power Grid).

This is the conclusion reached by a test carried out by APG itself special analysis of power supply for this winter. Several scenarios were played through, very similar to the stress tests for the German energy grid. According to the analysis that has now been published, a noticeable lack of electricity can only be expected in extreme scenarios. The Austrian network operator APG considers a blackout to be impossible.

Too optimistic?

What is suspicious: The scenario that is classified as the most likely in the analysis already seems outdated. The Austrian network operator therefore expects no or hardly any restrictions in the European gas supply, no significant additional consumption from electric heaters and a restart of three quarters of the French nuclear power plants.

However, the latter in particular continue to be the problem child of the European electricity supply. Because a large part of the French nuclear power plants are not ready for operation, are being maintained or unexpected damage has been discovered. More than half of France’s reactor capacity was therefore missing in October. Only around 30 of the 61 gigawatts of power were available. According to APG CEO Gerhard Christiner, a maximum of 40 gigawatts is expected at the peak time in January.

Only two months ago, France and Germany also publicly assured each other of solidarity because of the difficult situation in the French nuclear power plants. France has gas that Germany could need in the winter. Germany, on the other hand, exported more electricity to France up to August alone than in 2019 and 2020 combined. The export hit nuclear power from France was thus replaced by German green electricity.

What is different in Austria

However, Austria has a clear advantage over Germany’s dependence on gas and coal. Almost two-thirds of the electricity in the Alpine Republic already comes from renewable sources, primarily hydroelectric power from rivers and reservoirs.

The situation here is much more relaxed than in Italy, for example, where entire rivers dried up this summer. Or in France, where the nuclear reactors had to be throttled in some cases due to a lack of water and rivers that were too hot. But also in Austria, electricity production from hydropower fell by around five percent in the first half of 2022 compared to the same period last year, as shown by data from the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems.

Austria generates another 20 percent of its energy from gas – and that’s difficult to calculate this winter. The warehouses in the country are full. But similar to Germany, a long cold period can quickly turn the tide.

If the gas supply is at or below 60 percent of the normal quantities, Austria could also find itself in a situation of load undersupply. This is also the result of the special analysis by APG. However, this would first mean switching off large consumers, much like in Germany.

From exporter to importer

Something else has changed in Austria this year. Instead of exporting electricity, the Alpine country imported electricity every month, mainly from Germany. According to the Federal Network Agency, that was around 450,000 kilowatt hours a day in October. According to the Fraunhofer Institute, Austria is likely to be the second largest customer for German electricity – after Switzerland and before France.

Every year since 2003, Germany has had a significant surplus of electricity supplies to its neighboring countries. Last year it was 20 billion kilowatt hours. Exports are likely to be significantly higher again this year. It is currently around 24 billion kilowatt hours.