Department of Defense: Who could follow Lambrecht

Eva Högl or Siemtje Möller? Hubertus Heil or Lars Klingbeil? A possible successor to Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht is already being discussed. What speaks for whom?

If Federal Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht actually resigns in the coming days, time is running out when it comes to succession planning. Important decisions are already pending next week: a meeting with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin and participation in a conference at the US military base in Ramstein are planned, at which the western allies want to talk about arms deliveries to Ukraine. A successor would have to tackle all of this with extremely little preparation. The same applies to the work on the targeted use of funds from the special fund of 100 billion euros.

But not only the specific tasks, skills and previous knowledge play an important role in a possible replacement. According to the coalition agreement, the Ministry of Defense belongs to the SPD. Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his party could therefore largely decide on their own in the event of an immediate replacement. However, since Scholz started with the promise of an equal cabinet in which men and women hold the same number of ministerial posts, he would have to appoint a woman to head the defense department again if Lambrecht were to leave.

It would look different if there were a major reshuffle in the cabinet with changes in several positions, which FDP Vice Wolfgang Kubicki, among others, has already brought into play. In this context, it should be borne in mind that Federal Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser (SPD) has been traded for some time as a possible top candidate for her party for the state elections in Hesse in autumn. Faeser is chairwoman of the Hessian SPD state association, which wants to decide on the personnel at the beginning of February.

Högl promising candidate

The SPD politician Eva Högl, who has been the Bundestag’s military commissioner since 2020, is considered a promising candidate for a possible successor to Lambrecht. By then she had been a member of the Bundestag for eleven years. During this time she was, among other things, SPD parliamentary group leader, member of the parliamentary control committee and member of the first NSU investigative committee.

The doctor of law has already been discussed in the past as a candidate for cabinet posts. Among other things, she was traded for the office of Federal Minister of Justice in 2018. SPD party colleagues report that hardly anyone familiarizes himself with topics as quickly as Högl. However, the networker sometimes leans too much towards the positions of the conservative SPD wing for some MPs from the left-wing SPD. However, she also enjoys respect in other parties. The Union has already said that she is much more suitable for the post of defense minister than Lambrecht.

Also Möller with good chances

Another obvious successor candidate in the event of Lambrecht’s resignation would be Siemtje Möller. The 39-year-old SPD politician has been Parliamentary State Secretary in the Ministry of Defense since 2021 and is therefore very familiar with all of the department’s current tasks.

Möller comes from the state association of Lower Saxony and was elected to the Bundestag for the first time in 2017. From 2020 to 2022 she was one of the spokespersons for the Seeheimer Kreis, an association of SPD members of the Bundestag who, according to their own statements, stand for “modern and pragmatic politics”. Within the SPD parliamentary group, they are seen as the conservative wing.

SPD leader Klingbeil in conversation

The name of SPD leader Lars Klingbeil is also often mentioned when it comes to possible Lambrecht successors. However, if he were to take office without further changes in the cabinet, parity within the cabinet would no longer be guaranteed. That is one of the points against his appointment. That could look different if there were significantly more castling as part of a major cabinet reshuffle.

As a minister in the difficult defense department, Klingbeil could make a name for himself, but he would also have to submit to Chancellor Scholz within the cabinet. Such a constellation could hold potential for conflict for him as party leader. Klingbeil has been a member of the Bundestag since 2009 and is, among other things, a deputy member of the defense committee. He is himself the son of a professional soldier and was already considered a candidate for the post of defense minister in 2021 – he is said to have striven for it himself at the time. When he failed to form a government, he was elected head of the SPD instead.

Heil candidate in case of cabinet reshuffle

Federal Labor Minister Hubertus Heil could also be considered for a move to the head of the defense department. If an SPD politician took over the Ministry of Labor for him, that could also solve the question of equal representation. The change would also be conceivable in the course of a major restructuring in the cabinet.

Heil has been in charge of the labor and social affairs department since 2018. He is deputy SPD chairman, was SPD general secretary for several years and has been a member of the Bundestag since 1998. Heil is known for repeatedly causing surprises inside and outside the party with targeted advances. He also enjoys the reputation of knowing exactly what he wants and doesn’t want. On the other hand, he knows exactly how to get things done politically.

Or an FDP politician?

In the event of a major cabinet reshuffle, it would also be conceivable for one of the other coalition partners to take over the defense ministry. In this case, the FDP politician Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann is mentioned as a possible replacement. She has been a member of the Bundestag since 2017 and has chaired the Defense Committee there since 2021.

Whether one of these candidates gets a chance or whether Chancellor Scholz decides on a different personality in the event of Lambrecht’s expected resignation depends on many factors. In view of the loud criticism of the incumbent and the tasks ahead, however, it is becoming apparent that any successor plan will also be assessed from the point of view of knowledge of security and defense policy and the Bundeswehr.