Defense alliance
Dispute over Sweden’s NATO membership: Turkey’s yes expected
Hopes for a yes from Ankara and Budapest: Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. photo
© Pontus Lundahl/TT News Agency/AP/dpa
Is Sweden’s NATO odyssey nearing its end? For a long time, the Scandinavian country was biting against granite in Ankara and Budapest, but now something is happening in the dispute over Sweden’s accession to NATO.
Under the impression of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Sweden and Finland decided in 2022 to apply for membership in NATO after many years of freedom from military alliances. Finland received all the necessary ratifications from NATO states within a year and was able to join the defense alliance as the 31st member in April 2023.
Sweden, on the other hand, is still missing the yes vote from Turkey and Hungary. Turkey had actively blocked the accession process for months, citing what it saw as Sweden’s lack of commitment against “terror organizations” such as the banned Kurdish Workers’ Party (PKK).
After various concessions from Stockholm, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced at the end of October that he would allow approval by the Turkish parliament. However, he later linked the ratification to the USA supplying modern F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. Hungary, meanwhile, was bothered by Swedish statements about the rule of law and corruption in the country.
The blockade was repeatedly criticized by Germany and other allies; in Sweden, the period of uncertainty in view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine led to growing frustration. In this situation, statements by the Swedish Commander-in-Chief Micael Bydén and the Minister of Civil Defense, Carl-Oskar Bohlin, received a lot of attention. This month they called on Swedes to mentally prepare themselves for the possibility of war in Sweden. This was met with unrest among the population, even though Prime Minister Kristersson later assured that there was currently no evidence of an impending war in Sweden.
Turkish Parliament could vote
Now the Swedes could overcome an important hurdle in the Turkish parliament. Sweden’s accession to NATO is the 42nd and last item on the agenda of the parliamentary session in Ankara, which was scheduled to begin at 3:00 p.m. local time/1:00 p.m. CET.
It remained unclear in advance whether the possible approval depends on concessions in negotiations over arms deals. If a decision is made, it must then be signed again by Erdogan – whether he will do so in a timely manner remains to be seen. The decision is then published in the Official Gazette, which is a formality.
Orban wants to negotiate
That leaves Hungary. Prime Minister Orban there had always emphasized that his country did not want to be the last to ratify Sweden’s accession to NATO. Following the signals from Ankara, he stated on Tuesday on the online platform
If Orban ultimately raises his thumb, ratification in the Hungarian parliament will probably only be a formality. However, Parliament in Budapest will not meet again as planned until February. However, the social democratic opposition party MSZP requested an immediate special parliamentary session on Tuesday to approve Sweden’s NATO proposal. Ultimately, however, Orban’s Fidesz party decides.