Before the midterm elections
Defeat only through electoral fraud? Even a quarter of US Democrats think so
“Vote Blue not Coup” [für die Demokraten]not the putsch”): A large minority of Americans consider fraud to be likely if their own party loses the election.
© Mario Tama / Getty Images / AFP
In democracies, fair elections are usually used to determine the will of the majority. But a significant group of Americans is no longer convinced of this. This applies not only to Trump-drunk Republicans, but also to a number of Democrats.
Donald Trump has apparently done a great job. Ever since he was voted out as US President, he has maintained the narrative that the election was stolen from him. He couldn’t come up with any clues, let alone proof. Corresponding lawsuits all failed in the courts. And yet constant dripping wears away the stone. In the meantime, not only die-hard Trump supporters in elections generally suspect fraud by the other side, should there be a defeat, a fundamental skepticism about elections has also taken root in the democratic camp.
This is the result of a representative survey by the international market research institute Ipsos for the US news site “Axios”. When asked “If your party doesn’t gain control of Congress, how likely are you to blame voter fraud?” 39 percent of Republican supporters responded that it was likely or very likely. That number hardly surprised market researchers after two years of persistent claims by Republican politicians that the 2020 election was “stolen” from Donald Trump. What made her sit up and take notice, however, was that even in the Democratic Party camp, if the election were defeated, a quarter would assume that the other side was cheating. This shows that the “Big Lie of 2020” is alive and turning into a broader distrust of democratic institutions and elections. According to the Ipsos report, this trend is also gaining ground.
Election fraud: Lack of contact with people who disagree
The institute had asked with a view to the midterm elections in early November. It is the first election to the US Congress since Donald Trump was voted out of office and the Capitol was stormed on January 6, 2021. Among other things, the market researchers got the impression that the split between politics and society in the US is already well advanced. According to the survey, even simple contacts outside of the like-minded group are becoming increasingly rare. The lack of connections “across the aisle” leaves plenty of room for conspiracy theories and belief in the “Big Lie,” says Chris Jackson, vice president of Ipsos. This is how opinions solidify because they are projected onto people you have never met.
It does not take much to shake or dissolve this solidification. The poll found that Americans who had shared a meal with people from other political backgrounds even once in the past month were significantly more skeptical of jumping to conclusions and unproven voter fraud allegations. Those who have connections to people with different points of view “are much less likely to follow some ‘crazy people’ or even support them,” says Jackson.
According to the survey, the midterms were a tight race
According to the survey, a close race is emerging for the midterms. 35 percent of those surveyed said they wanted to support Democratic candidates, 31 percent wanted to vote for Republicans. A third of those entitled to vote are looking forward to the elections with hope, while two-thirds are more concerned. Around 43 percent of those surveyed found that ex-President Donald Trump was wrongly being attacked by the other political camp; 45 percent have the opposite opinion. As expected, these expressions of opinion moved along party lines, according to Ipsos.
Sources: Ipsos survey, “Axios”