Debate about the debt brake: No Christmas rest for the SPD

There are rumblings in the SPD about the question of whether the debt brake should be suspended in 2024. The party, which has been weakened in the polls, is worried about distribution struggles. Of all people, the level-headed SPD parliamentary group leader Mützenich is leading the way.

SPD parliamentary group leader Rolf Mützenich is the rarer breed of politician who doesn’t seek the spotlight. Especially not the label of headline king. It is all the more noticeable that he is now clearly audibly raising his voice to comment on what has really been the traffic light coalition’s biggest bone of contention for weeks, the possible suspension of the debt brake in the 2024 federal budget.

Above all, the timing is so explosive: just over a week ago, the coalition leaders Olaf Scholz, Robert Habeck and Christian Lindner agreed on a list of cuts that was necessary because the Federal Constitutional Court declared the reallocation of Corona funds to the climate fund “void.” had explained. They actually wanted to use the agreement to allow themselves at least a few quieter weeks over the turn of the year until the coalition factions and the budget committee deal with the implementation.

The fact that this political agreement was achieved in mid-December was due to a very difficult and at times unpredictable negotiation process. In the end, the decision was made in favor of the smallest coalition partner, the FDP, that the debt brake should not be suspended again for 2024 because of the definition of an emergency.

However, the coalition leaders’ compromise contained one or two open doors: an exception would be examined for the Ahr Valley aid, and this could also be the case for Ukraine aid if the situation worsened, for example due to reduced US support.

But it was important for Finance Minister Lindner to first be able to announce the message to his FDP clientele: We are sticking to the debt brake for 2024 after exceptional years caused by the pandemic and war.

SPD parliamentary group dissatisfied with the agreement

However, hardly anyone in the SPD parliamentary group believes that this will happen. There they consider the agreement to be simply wrong. And rather calls for a reform of the debt brake, supported by the recent SPD party conference resolution that has just been passed. The instrument no longer fits the times in this form – Mützenich says nothing else now. It can be assumed that SPD Chancellor Scholz also took this stance in the negotiations, but was unable to enforce it against the FDP.

Mützenich’s skeptical attitude towards the debt brake is well known. The question is why a level-headed, experienced politician like Mützenich, who elsewhere often worries about the inconsistent public image of the traffic light coalition, is now pushing this forward so emphatically and publicly. Ultimately, he is snubbing the agreement, which had just been presented as a good compromise by the SPD Chancellor. It could also come across as an affront to Scholz.

It’s probably an attempt by Mützenich to remain authentic. This is how it is explained from his environment. He doesn’t want to have to be asked in the new year: Why didn’t you say that in the first place? It is radical honesty, pure SPD versus compromise chancellor, so to speak. But certainly not just for its own sake: the long-time SPD politician probably also wants to put pressure on the FDP.

Parliament approves the budget

In SPD faction circles, Lindner’s very consistent stance on the debt brake for 2024 is interpreted as meaning that he will not be able to correct it at least until the end of the FDP member survey. At the request of the FDP base, FDP members are currently voting on whether to remain in the traffic light coalition – the applicants are against it.

However, the result is not binding for the party leadership. After that, it is believed in the SPD that Lindner can again appear more moderate in negotiations with the other two traffic light factions – because he and his faction have to negotiate. The budget is decided by parliament, not the finance minister. Mützenich points this out like a prayer wheel. He wants to show the largest coalition faction, which he knows has his back on the issue, as an independent actor.

He thinks “that the FDP could also be a little more imaginative,” Mützenich told him Deutschlandfunknamely on the question that concerns state aid and services in the restructuring of industrial society, but also international aid.

The group leader also speaks for his party here. Both SPD party leaders have been making similar statements about the budget and the debt brake for a long time. At the SPD party conference, the Jusos even called for its complete abolition.

Be careful social Major conflict

This means that a major financial policy difference between the SPD and FDP in the traffic light coalition has become abundantly clear in these weeks. So far, the debates have often been between the FDP and the Greens. You can hear a certain sigh of relief from the Greens at not being the focus of interest at the moment – in terms of content, they agree with the SPD on the question of the debt brake.

For Mützenich, these are not party political games to point out possible additional spending and consequences for the debt brake in 2024. He is worried about a major conflict in society as a whole, about emerging distribution struggles, for example if the costs of military support for Ukraine come at the expense of workers.

SPD MPs sense that something is changing in the middle of society when they talk to citizens, but also to entrepreneurs in their constituencies, and also SPD state leaders. The SPD’s poll numbers are currently 14 percent.

“It’s two to twelve”

At the same time, the party also defines the term intergenerational justice differently than Lindner’s FDP, which uses it to justify sticking to the debt brake. “We’re currently seeing the clock two to twelve,” says 36-year-old SPD MP Verena Hubertz, one of Mützenich’s deputies.

“What is the point of the next generation having a blank account if at the same time they are taught in ailing schools and do not come out with the best education?” asks Hubertz. But she also sees ways to agree on new financing methods with the FDP – for example on a Germany fund that “levers more private capital.”

All in all, the Mützenich offensive seems as if the SPD finally wants to become louder and more visible in the traffic light coalition. So far, the FDP and the Greens have been quite good at it.