Imposing sanctions without harming yourself – this problem arises in some authoritarian-run raw material states. Despite expelling tens of thousands of Armenians, Azerbaijan has so far escaped without punitive measures.
It has been almost two months since the capture of Nagorno-Karabakh by Azerbaijani troops. More than 100,000 Armenians from the region are now trying to gain a foothold in Armenia. This is an enormous challenge for the small country with almost three million inhabitants. “It’s as if 2.5 to three million refugees were coming to Germany,” says SPD foreign policy expert Michael Roth, describing the ratio. The chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Bundestag was currently traveling in Armenia.
There is not only a concern there that people will be forgotten between the Middle East conflict and the war against Ukraine. There are also still fears that neighboring Azerbaijan could encroach on Armenian territory to create a corridor to the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan and thus a land connection to Turkey.
The leadership in Baku has now declared that this corridor is no longer necessary because an alternative transport connection has been agreed with its southern neighbor Iran. But President Ilham Aliyev had also ruled out the military capture of Nagorno-Karabakh in talks with high-ranking state representatives – and then gave the order after no punitive measures were taken following previous military advances.
“Politics of the self-confidence”
Roth criticizes the fact that the EU states cannot agree on “taking a tougher approach towards the aggressor Azerbaijan, for example through the concrete threat of sanctions.” He could not imagine expanding energy relations.
“You shouldn’t reward an authoritarian regime for carrying out ethnic cleansing,” said Roth. “The population in Nagorno-Karabakh was starved for months and then military force was resorted to with the argument of restoring security and order.” Nobody could rule out an attack on Armenian territory in the shadow of the two “mega-crises” in the Middle East and Ukraine.
Roth calls on the EU to act with self-confidence towards Azerbaijan.
Russia’s war against Ukraine was the reason for the EU to enter into the energy partnership in 2022. Azerbaijan barely contributes three percent of gas imports to the EU. They still play an important role for Italy, Hungary, Romania and Bulgaria.
Roth calls for energy relations to be placed on a broad basis and for EU partners to be helped to find alternatives to Azerbaijan. And he emphasizes: “We should pursue a policy of self-confidence, they need us too.” The European market is highly attractive for Azerbaijan.
Strategic culture required
The CDU foreign and security politician Roderich Kiesewetter also speaks of smart approaches to autocracies with which there are no connections, for example through membership in alliances of rule-based states. He speaks of economic, military and hybrid deterrence.
A variety of measures could be considered: sanctions against individuals, organizations and companies, export bans, international criminal prosecution, visa restrictions, restrictions on development cooperation or freezing of financial resources, suspension from international organizations, expulsion of embassy staff or even the cessation of imports.
Kiesewetter also advocates strategic, forward-looking action in order to be able to overcome one’s own vulnerability and that of its allies in view of dependencies, such as in the case of southern European states, on gas from Azerbaijan. This included more resilient structures and a strategic culture. “Since Germany doesn’t have all of this or doesn’t have it enough and the government has not yet shown a uniform stance on these questions, there have been no consequences apart from appeals. However, there is usually no model solution. There would be no government constellation.”
In the case of Azerbaijan’s aggression, Kiesewetter criticizes that the EU has made itself untrustworthy by not acting.
Strengthen Armenia’s defenses
Armenia is now relying on its own strength and hoping for support from allies. This includes France, which has just concluded a military agreement on the supply of military equipment for air defense as well as for the education and training of the Armenian armed forces.
SPD politician Roth believes this step is the right one because it is about Armenia’s ability to defend itself and defend itself in order to prevent the danger of renewed military aggression by Azerbaijan. “We are dealing here with a rich and authoritarian regime that has massively rearmed.”
If France leads the way with military support, then Germany should above all be prepared to provide economic support and promote democracy in Armenia. “We can definitely divide the work,” suggests Roth.
Roth also likes something else: France is opening a consulate in the Armenian region that could attack Azerbaijan. It’s not about specific consular cases, but rather it is an important symbol of showing presence in a highly dangerous region. “That would be an added value in terms of security.”
The strategic goal for the EU should be to be an anchor for democracy and stability in the South Caucasus, sums up Roth.