Market report
Status: 10/01/2021 9:46 a.m.
The downward momentum in the DAX intensified at the beginning of the new month. The leading German index is heading for the 15,000 point mark, which should turn out to be the fateful mark for the DAX.
At the start of trading on XETRA, the DAX slumped 1.4 percent to 15,042 points. The downward trend in the 40 German standard stocks is still completely intact, the DAX is in a falling trend channel. Anyone who has used the courses that have already fallen in the past few days to get started now needs strong nerves.
“So far, the bargain hunters have not had too much luck hunting. The recent price setbacks have not yet paid off,” emphasizes IG analyst Christian Henke. “Rising yields in the US and the fear of rate hikes are making market players cautious.”
In the DAX, investors are now focusing on the 15,000 point mark. At this point the further development direction of the DAX should be decided. After all, at this level there is an important support in the form of the two most recent lows (15,049 / 15,019 points): At this point, the DAX has already turned the curve twice in the past and turned upwards.
The 200-day line, i.e. the moving average of the past 200 trading days (currently at 14,999 points), offers additional hold. For experts who argue in terms of charts, this is an important indicator of the medium to long-term trend in the DAX.
A fall below that would be interpreted by many investors as the starting signal for an extended downward movement. Many automatic trading systems are also likely to have set their stop-loss marks at this level, so that if there was a clear drop below the 15,000 points, numerous sell orders would automatically be activated.
Flood of economic data
In addition, a large number of economic data should keep investors in suspense as trading continues. In the morning, German retail sales made the start and caused a disappointment: Compared to the previous month, real sales (price-adjusted) increased by 1.1 percent. Analysts had expected an increase of 1.5 percent.
After the rise in the German inflation rate to 4.1 percent in September and thus to its highest level in almost 30 years, the European price data due at 11 a.m. is also attracting special attention. In the USA, among other things, the much-noticed consumer spending is on the schedule. The buying mood of the local consumers is considered to be the mainstay of the world’s largest economy.
Meanwhile, Wall Street is generating negative impulses for DAX trading. The US standard value index Dow Jones closed yesterday 1.6 percent lower to 33,843 points. The technology-heavy Nasdaq was down 0.4 percent to 14,448 points. The broad S&P 500 lost 1.2 percent to 4307 points.
Speculations about a faster tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the dispute over raising the US debt ceiling weighed on investor sentiment, as did the surprising increase in initial claims for US unemployment benefits last week.
At the end of the week, the bad specifications from the USA are also depressing the mood in Asia. In addition, fears were growing on the stock exchanges in the Far East that inflation would continue even after the peak of global growth. It seems that fewer and fewer investors are willing to believe the central banks’ narrative that the current phase of high inflation is only temporary.
The Japanese Nikkei index, comprising 225 values, was 2.3 percent lower at 28,771 points at close of trading in Tokyo. The Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges will be closed today due to a public holiday.
The increasing risk aversion of investors is echoed in the commodities market: the “safe haven” gold made up a lot of ground yesterday and rose by almost two percent. In the morning, a troy ounce of the yellow precious metal cost $ 1756 0.2 percent more.
The euro can do little to counter its recent losses against the dollar. The European common currency is trading at $ 1.1583 this morning after falling to $ 1.1562 yesterday. That was the lowest level since July 2020.
Oil prices fell slightly in the morning. The price of a barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent is down 0.4 percent to $ 78.13. Over the course of the week, Brent had risen to over $ 80, its highest level in three years.
The background to this is speculation that the OPEC oil cartel and its allies could expand their production volumes faster than previously planned. Such a move could be decided at the OPEC + meeting on Monday, people familiar with the matter said.
In the DAX, the focus is on the Daimler share. At today’s extraordinary online general meeting, Daimler shareholders are called upon to approve the planned split of the Stuttgart group. The aim is to separate the large truck and bus business of Daimler Truck from the group and to go public before Christmas as an independent company.
Higher prices for new and used cars as well as reversed provisions mean that the Munich-based carmaker BMW is more confident about the year as a whole. The company raised its forecast for the second time this year on Thursday after the market closed. The operating profit margin should now be between 9.5 and 10.5 percent. So far, the Munich had only believed seven to nine percent.
After billions in claims against Allianz in the United States, manager Jacqueline Hunt is leaving the board of the Munich insurance group prematurely. Today, her successor, Andreas Wimmer, is moving up to the top of the alliance. Hunt’s contract would not have expired until next year. The British woman was responsible for asset management, which is now struggling with expensive legal problems in the USA.
BioNTech is driving the development of its cancer immunotherapies. With the agent BNT122, which, like the Covid-19 vaccine from BioNTech, is based on mRNA technology, the Mainz-based company started a phase 2 clinical study for use in colon cancer. For BioNTech, it is the second study in its cancer pipeline that has now reached the second of three phases of clinical development.
Zoom’s plans to establish itself faster in the call center business with a billion-dollar acquisition have failed. The shareholders of the company Five9, which Zoom wanted to swallow, rejected the deal. In the past few weeks, the US government announced an intensive review of the takeover. A special committee headed by the Justice Department investigated whether the deal posed risks to US national security.