Almost five months before the state election, the CSU can continue to expect a better result than in the 2018 election. At that time, the party won 37.2 percent, in the new BR24 Bavarian trend it is 39. In the representative study by the Infratest Dimap institute, the was published on Tuesday, the CSU is in a worse position than in the surveys of other survey institutes, some of which recently saw them well above the symbolic 40 percent mark. A Forsa survey commissioned by the SZ recently showed 41 percent. Compared to the Bavarian trend in January, the free voters have improved by two points to twelve percent. That would be enough for the continuation of the coalition of CSU and FW, which Prime Minister Markus Söder and his deputy Hubert Aiwanger are aiming for.
The Greens are under pressure in the Free State, as they are nationwide: Compared to the BR survey at the beginning of the year, they lose two points and come to 16 percent. The SPD achieves eleven percent in the Bavarian trend, plus two. The AfD is doing slightly worse than in January, at twelve percent. The FDP would fail to move into the Maximilianeum with an unchanged four percent.
About half of those entitled to vote are satisfied with the work of the state government: 51 percent. The value is constant, 46 percent of those surveyed are dissatisfied. While a large majority of CSU supporters expressed their support for the government’s work (81 percent), this was the case for just over every second person in the coalition partner’s ranks (52). The majority of opposition supporters are critical.
55 percent of those surveyed gave the prime minister a positive testimonial as a person. Söder continues to lead the list of the most popular state politicians. Aiwanger follows in second place with 48 percent (plus three points). From the ranks of the opposition, the leader of the Green parliamentary group, Katharina Schulze, is in the lead, with a quarter of respondents rating her positively. Your co-chairman Ludwig Hartmann brings it to 16 percent, Florian von Brunn (SPD) to twelve, Martin Hagen (FDP) to ten and AfD parliamentary group leader Ulrich Singer to six percent.
However, unlike the other faction leaders, Singer is not the top candidate. An AfD party congress elected MPs Katrin Ebner-Steiner and Martin Böhm, both exponents of the formally dissolved ethnic “wing”. The faction leaders of the SPD, FDP and AfD “are still struggling with visible awareness problems, a large majority of those entitled to vote are finding it difficult to rate their work at the moment,” analyze the Bayerntrend makers.
As a coalition after the election in October, respondents favor black-orange, CSU and FW with 51 percent, thus finding even greater support than before they formed their government. 35 percent can imagine a one-man government of the CSU, an alliance with the FDP, if it were to get into the state parliament, would receive 33 percent approval. And even a coalition of CSU and SPD would be more popular with 27 percent than Black-Green – only 23 percent can make friends with this idea, which is currently the only theoretically conceivable power prospect for the Greens. Other coalitions, such as a Bavarian traffic light, did not ask the Bayern trend makers.