Russian soldiers stationed near the Ukrainian border have been the norm for years. For several weeks now, however, these troops seem to have been multiplying and moving in a way that has alarmed Western governments. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg spoke of “large and unusual” troop concentrations near the border, while France and Germany urged Moscow to exercise restraint and Ukraine to be prudent. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken warned Russia of a “serious mistake” should it repeat what it tried to do in 2014, namely to penetrate into “sovereign Ukrainian territory”. You’re nervous, and not for the first time this year.
As early as March, Moscow had deployed tens of thousands of soldiers near the border with Ukraine and the annexed Crimea – in addition to the units that are permanently stationed there. At that time, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu spoke of an exercise and review that he declared ended at the end of April. Then he withdrew the troops again – but not all of them. The tanks and military vehicles of the 41st Army, for example, which are actually stationed in Novosibirsk, Siberia, remained at the Pogonowo military training area near Voronezh, 170 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. Shoigu said at the time that the large-scale exercise “Sapad”, West, would follow in September.
Now the Sapad exercise is over, but the 41st Army is still not on its way back to Siberia. Instead, it was apparently moved from Voronosh to Yelnya in the Smolensk region. This is shown by satellite images and videos from social media that the research group “Conflict Intelligence Team” (CIT) has collected and analyzed. Jelnja is no further from the Ukrainian border than Pogonowo. The CIT experts find cause for concern, but no “clear evidence of preparations for an offensive operation”.
More than just a routine exercise
There were other transfers, apparently a tank division, for example, was brought south by trains from the Moscow area. Much is different than in spring, there are probably fewer troops, they are moving more quietly, the situation is more obscure. “In the southern military district there are troop movements, including airborne troops,” wrote the military expert Pawel Felgengauer in the Novaya Gazeta, “but nothing comparable in terms of size with the spring combat readiness review”. It also does not seem to be a routine exercise, wrote the American military expert Michael Kofman on Twitter, “it would be difficult to find a harmless explanation for what is being observed there”.
The Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Resnikov expressed “concern about Russia’s military development and activities on the borders of Ukraine” on Tuesday. His deputy Anna Maljar said the day before on the television channel ICTV that the Ukraine and western allies agree in their analysis of the number and importance of Russian troops near the border and expect a worsening “this winter, starting with December”.
Last week, President Volodimir Zelensky spoke of “almost 100,000 soldiers on our border”. The war in eastern Ukraine is now in its eighth year, he said in a video address, and the same applies to the Russian troop movements. “Psychological pressure from the Russian Federation has long ceased to affect us.” There is no need to panic, added David Arachamija, head of the Zelensky faction “Servants of the People” in the Ukrainian parliament. “Last time, too, four or five months ago, there was a great concentration of Russian forces.” Even then, “a great many of our partners” warned Russia of the possible consequences.
Putin criticizes NATO maneuvers in the Black Sea
In Moscow at the weekend, Vladimir Putin asked about the situation on the Ukrainian border on state television – and used his answer to complain about an “unscheduled” NATO exercise in the Black Sea that was a “serious challenge” for Russia. Putin did not say which exercise he meant, there are currently several US warships in the Black Sea. In October, the president told the international Valdai discussion forum that Ukraine might formally never join NATO, but that “military expansion on the territory” is already underway – and that this is a threat to Russia.
Most recently, Putin criticized the Ukrainian military for having used a Turkish Bayraktar drone in Donbass in October – a violation of the ceasefire. The same drones were used by the Azerbaijani ruler Ilham Aliyev last year in the conflict over the Nagorno-Karabakh region, which he won against Armenia. If Ukraine in Donbass should actually “follow the path of Aliyev”, Andrei Kortunov, head of the Russian Council for International Affairs, told the Ria Novosti news agency, “Russia will probably actually be forced to react”. However, Kortunov also emphasized that he did not consider a military action to be likely. Russia could “achieve nothing” as a result and the losses would be “very large”.