Will there be calm after the current omicron wave? Scientists take a look into the crystal ball and come to the conclusion that the risk of corona seems to have only been acutely averted at first.
The omicron wave is now also considered broken in Germany for the time being. A nationwide overload of the health system no longer seems to be feared. The federal and state governments recently agreed on far-reaching easing in the next few weeks.
The pandemic, it is said, is entering a “new phase”. But what does that mean? There are increasing warning voices from science: the further course remains a calculation with many unknowns.
As in the last two years, experts are assuming that the infection situation will ease significantly in the warmer months of the year. Most of the measures in Germany should fall by spring. Is it really going to be quiet until autumn? “One scenario is that we get through this wave well, that despite the easing, if they happen sequentially and carefully, we get to a low incidence level in summer,” confirms Corona modeler Dirk Brockmann in an interview with the Deutsche Presse- Agency.
Behind the much-used but abstract concept of the “new phase” is currently the hope that the omicron wave, which “rushed through society with great dynamism”, could soon be completely left behind and that far-reaching openings would be justifiable, he explains Physicist from the Humboldt University in Berlin.
be careful
But Brockmann warns directly: “I would be very careful with that.” The currently great potential for change should not be equated with a general all-clear. As before the omicron wave, it is to be expected that “new variants will keep popping up for a very long time and then new situations will arise again and again,” predicts the expert. It could “start again as early as autumn, depending on how much the vaccination gaps are closed”.
The omicron subtype BA.2 is regarded as an uncertainty factor for short- and medium-term perspectives. There are not many reliable findings yet – but it is assumed that it can be transferred even more quickly than the BA.1 variant that has been prevalent in Germany up to now. According to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), the proportion of BA.2 has recently increased continuously to around 15 percent. If the subtype continues to assert itself, RKI Vice President Lars Schaade recently made it clear that “it cannot be ruled out that the number of cases will decrease more slowly or increase again”.
Corona constant companion
From science and politics, the assessment is loud: Even after the omicron peak, Corona with its variants will accompany people for a long time. Scientists from the British Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) recently modeled what this could look like in the next 12 to 18 months in four scenarios – with the proviso that other developments are also conceivable. They try to take into account influencing factors such as the development of new virus variants, the vaccination rate and dwindling immune protection.
The result: On the one hand there is a “best case” scenario with the forecast that there will be other variants, but their transferability will not increase and they will not reach the level of severity of the delta variant. The virus is therefore less and less able to escape from the immune system and in autumn and winter only small waves are to be expected, rarely with serious illnesses.
On the other hand, there is a “worst-case” scenario: This includes a very high global incidence, incomplete vaccination protection and the recurrence of unpredictable variants. A very large wave of infection with numerous serious cases can be expected in the next year and a half. Between the two options there is a more optimistic and a more pessimistic scenario.
Avoid common mistakes
“These categories are totally justifiable because they stand side by side and emphasize that things can go one way or another,” says Brockmann, looking at the four SAGE scenarios. In this way, the mistake that has often been made in the previous pandemic of assuming an exact scenario and being surprised by other developments can be avoided. Concrete, particularly longer-term forecasts are only possible to a limited extent. Consequently, it is always important to consider multiple scenarios.
According to the virologist Sandra Ciesek, the models can also be transferred to Germany and other countries to a certain extent. They all showed that Covid-19 is not going away and that you have to live with it, she said in the last edition of the NDR podcast “Coronavirus Update”. She warned against being blinded by the falling incidence and the prospect of easing: the pandemic is not over.
The modeler Andreas Schuppert from the RWTH Aachen University points out that, despite the indication that the omicron peak has been exceeded, infections are still increasing in the older age groups. The peak in these people is still to be expected, which is why severe courses can be expected for a little longer. “We have to monitor the dynamics very closely,” says Schuppert.
Not the end of Corona
Many experts see the development of the pandemic in an endemic state getting closer. However, modeler Brockmann also makes it clear: From his point of view, this transition, which is often eagerly awaited, will not mean the end of Corona. “That would be short-sighted.”
A disease is endemic if it occurs in a region with a relatively constant number of cases. This includes the flu, which, like Covid-19, follows a seasonal pattern. Another example is malaria: the disease occurs at different levels in the affected countries all the time.
The corona virus will also continue to circulate, even if it is then presumably less dangerous for the general population, according to Brockmann. “We must be aware that Corona is a problem that will keep us busy for many years to come. Maybe not as intense as now, but with new surprises, new variants that can come.”