Coup against the government: who is pursuing which interests in Niger?

The coup in Niger affects the interests of many actors – domestically, in neighboring countries, but also in Europe. What goals is Russia pursuing, what does France want – and why are the events so important for Germany?

The military

Since the country gained independence in 1960, the military in Niger has repeatedly intervened in politics. It staged a total of five coups against the respective governments. Most recently, the army overthrew the democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum at the end of July.

But even without a coup, the army’s influence on Nigerien politics was considerable. The fact that two elected presidents came from their ranks is just one indication of this. General Abdourahamane Tiani, who has been in power since last week, was head of the Presidential Guard for many years and is said to have foiled several coup attempts in this capacity. He supported the peaceful and democratic change of power from elected president to elected president in 2021 – the first of its kind in Niger. However, Bazoum is said to have considered removing him from his post.

Officially, Tiani justified the revolt with a deteriorating security situation and “poor governance”. The reference to the security situation is likely to refer to the activities of Islamist groups and militias in the Sahel zone as a whole, which are connected to the terrorist organizations “Islamic State” and al-Qaeda. These are also active in the border triangle of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali. Attempts to push them back have so far been largely unsuccessful.

The president

Mohamed Bazoum is still in the capital, Niamey, where he is also in contact with representatives of African countries and other countries outside of Africa. It is uncertain what his prospects are of returning to office. According to his “Nigerian Party for Democracy and Socialism” on Monday, the military arrested at least 180 of its members after the coup, including several ministers.

After the putsch, there were demonstrations in several cities for the government, but above all for the putschists. As in Mali, the population’s disappointment at the lack of success in the fight against “Islamic State” and other terrorist militias had grown – Bazoum was also blamed for this, although he had only been in office for a relatively short time. Many Nigerians were similarly skeptical about the role of foreign troops in the fight against terrorism. Many citizens would question whether the foreign armed forces are effective – and whether foreign soldiers are still needed at all, said security experts ARD already last year.

The neighboring states

Niger’s western neighbors, Mali and Burkina Faso, sided with the putschists after the coup. Guinea also expressed its support for the new rulers. The sympathy is no coincidence: All three states have military governments that only came to power after 2021. They all also opposed threats of sanctions by the West African Economic Community ECOWAS – which is not surprising since ECOWAS suspended its membership after the coups.

After the coups, Mali and Burkina Faso turned away from the West and towards Russia. They now went very far in their solidarity with the military in Niamey. Should ECOWAS intervene militarily in Niger, it would be tantamount to a declaration of war on Mali and Burkina Faso, they said. However, observers dispute whether they have the military capacity to do so. Ulf Laessing from the Konrad Adenauer Foundation in Mali represented the ARD the view that both countries have “enough problems” that he cannot imagine “there is still a desire – from any side – to go to war”.

ECOWAS and African Union

The African Union immediately condemned the coup and gave the military 15 days to return to their barracks. They are ready to take “all necessary measures, including punitive sanctions” against the military coup.

The West African economic community ECOWAS, which comprises 15 countries, also reacted promptly and decisively to the coup. It imposed sanctions on Niger and gave the transitional military government an ultimatum: Bazoum must be back in office within a week, otherwise ECOWAS reserves the right to intervene militarily.

Whether ECOWAS remains so principled could already be seen at the weekend when the ECOWAS ultimatum to the junta expires. A mediation mission launched shortly after the coup by Benin’s head of state, Patrice Talon, has so far had no visible success.

But the new rulers in Niger also know that the bloc of states has intervened in member states on several occasions. The organisation’s military arm, ECOMOG, has intervened in conflicts in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea Bissau and Cote d’Ivoire since its inception in 1990. Whether that necessarily means that ECOWAS will intervene if their demands are not met is another matter.

France

For the French government, the coup in Niger is a heavy blow. He puts how ARD correspondent Julia Borutta reports, France’s military presence in the Sahel region as a whole is in question. After the coup in Mali, Niger was not only supposed to become a hub for the evacuation of western soldiers and their material from Mali. The upheavals in neighboring countries also made Niger the geostrategic bastion of the West in the region.

Around 1500 – 2000 soldiers of the former colonial power France are stationed in Niger. The extremely poor country is also of enormous economic importance for France. 20 percent of French uranium imports come from the Sahel state – the central raw material for the operation of French nuclear power plants. The contract should soon be extended to 2040. Should this now be questioned, it would also undermine France’s efforts to reduce the importance of Russian uranium in its nuclear power plants.

However, the income from the uranium contract may also be a reason for the putschists to continue fulfilling the contract, which would give France some influence in Niger. France’s Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna condemned the coup, but at the same time expressed the hope that the situation was “not final”. President Emmanuel Macron made it clear that he supports sanctions against the junta, i.e. relies on economic pressure.

Germany

Niger is important for the Federal Republic in several respects. The Bundeswehr maintains a base near the capital Niamey, where around 100 German soldiers are stationed. It is part of the infrastructure that supplies the soldiers in neighboring Mali and should play an important role in the withdrawal from Mali this year, where the troops of the UN mission MINUSMA are now unwanted. What the coup will mean for this cannot yet be foreseen. The future of the Bundeswehr training center, where Nigerien armed forces are to be trained to fight Islamist militias, is also unclear.

The federal government had placed great hopes in Niger as one of the few democratically governed countries in the region. That is why the Federal Republic – and the European Union – had invested a lot of money in development cooperation in recent years. This was linked to the hope of stabilizing the state and the democratic system in the face of the threat posed by Islamist groups in the region – also for a thoroughly selfish motive. As a transit country, Niger is an important partner in containing flight and migration movements towards Europe. The EU has been cooperating with Niger since 2015, primarily to block the critical migration route from the Nigerien desert city of Agadez to Libya.

Russia

Whether Russia is involved in the coup in Niger cannot be estimated for the time being. In an initial reaction, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said it was “necessary to restore constitutional order in Niger.” Russia “believes that the coup is unconstitutional and we always take a principled and clear position on this.”

However, Russia’s clear position is such a thing. The Russian government has been trying for years to expand its influence in Africa and push back that of the West. Moscow is not only interested in strategic interests, but also in economic ones. It also relies on the notorious mercenary group Wagner. In Mali and Burkina Faso, Wagner is fighting Islamist militias at the invitation of the military governments – a circumstance that prompted the West to withdraw its soldiers. Another resource-rich state at its side is therefore undoubtedly in the interests of the Kremlin.

Russian flags have repeatedly appeared during protests in Niger. Whether this was a spontaneous or controlled action is unclear. It is also possible that it was an expression of a generally anti-Western – and above all anti-French – attitude. Russia could also benefit from this – as in the neighboring countries of Mali and Burkina Faso.

China

According to a survey by the US government, China is the second largest foreign investor in the country after France – by a small margin. All other foreign investors follow far behind. Over the past few decades, the Chinese government has invested nearly $3 billion in Niger, mostly in oil exploration, processing and pipeline transport. The Chinese are also interested in the country’s uranium mines, where there are joint ventures to mine the coveted raw material inland.

It is obvious that China cares that the coup does not adversely affect Chinese interests in Niger. However, the changes in government over the past few decades have not changed or jeopardized this commitment. China is watching developments in Niger closely, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said after the coup – and calling on all parties to ensure stability.

With material by Dunja Sadaqi and Jean-Marie Magro, ARD Studio Rabat, and Julia Borutta, ARD Studio Paris