Over the phone, our question was greeted with chuckles. “We are going to do political fiction then”, ironically Daniel Boy, director of research emeritus at Sciences Po Cevipof, about Anne Hidalgo’s proposal made on Wednesday at 20 hours of TF1 to organize a primary “very very open” on the left. This Thursday morning, the case seemed indeed already buried with the categorical refusals of Yannick Jadot and Fabien Roussel, and the critics of La France Insoumise.
Heartbreak of the left, ego war,… The obstacles to a united and potentially winning left are numerous. But as to 20 minutes, we like good stories, we said “what if”? Could a primary save the left from humiliation in the presidential election? And if so, what stands in the way of organizing the union of the left?
The PS on the verge of disappearing?
First, the forces involved. In favor of the primary: Anne Hidalgo, candidate nominated by the PS, a former government party, which caps between 3 and 5%, and the lone rider Arnaud Montebourg, also mired in the polls. Against: the two “biggest” left parties today, the France Insoumise of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, credited with 8% of the voting intentions according to a poll, the ecologists of Yannick Jadot just behind. The Communists of Fabien Roussel are also against, and have already rejected a union with LFI.
“There is a certain confusion in the proposal of Anne Hidalgo”, judge Daniel Boy. According to him, the mayor of Paris like Arnaud Montebourg are looking for “an honorable way out” from this galley campaign. With a sword of Damocles over their heads: “There is a risk of not making more than 5%, which can be very expensive”, points out Laurence Morel, lecturer at the University of Lille and researcher associated with Cevipof. Expensive in two ways: first the non-reimbursement of campaign expenses, which can hurt a big party, and then the symbolic slap.
Especially since the PS is in a delicate situation. “The presidential election is the key to the French political system, if the PS does not go there, it is to admit that it is dead”, slice Daniel Boy. From where this proposal of the candidate of the party, who hopes to become again the standard bearer of the left … But as explained by Laurence Morel, the situation of the various candidates, and of their party, raises the question of “their survival as object Politics “. And in this little game, Jadot and Mélenchon have every interest in waiting for Anne Hidalgo to withdraw.
Jadot and Mélenchon, two insurmountable resistance
For the lecturer, “Jadot and Mélenchon are not so desperate, there is a greater risk for them of not being appointed”. Yannick Jadot side, already gone through a primary in his party, we rely on the legitimacy of the former member of Greenpeace. And, after years spent in allying with the PS, it is also estimated at EELV that “the party’s turn has arrived”, points out Fabien Escalona, associate researcher at Sciences Po and journalist at Mediapart. And, by keeping an eye on the legislative ones, “the Greens want to be able to recreate a group in the Assembly”.
For Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the fracture is also personal. The former PS “does not trust” his old party, underlines Daniel Boy, and spent the entire term of François Hollande “hit him”. “The differences erupted from the moment when François Hollande was in power,” recalls the researcher. Slingers voting a motion of censure against a government from their party, departure of environmentalists … The socialist presidency remains in the memory of voters on the left. And if, because of declining polls, Laurence Morel “does not rule out that Jean-Luc Mélenchon ends up accepting” the primary, she “doubts that he really supports Anne Hidalgo if she wins”. The Insoumis leader, however, remained clearly opposed to the primary on Thursday.
Enough to win?
And even in the event of a primary giving rise to a common candidacy, it would also be necessary to present a program, discussed and negotiated … that the voters of the left could all the same reject if the “headliner” or the common program did not suit them. . “It would take place at the end of January and after that we have two months left to develop a program and a government?” It exudes such improvisation ”, criticized Jean-Luc Mélenchon. “There are still deep differences on Europe and the part of liberalism”, recalls Daniel Boy. Successfully negotiating a common program between now and the presidential election, then declining it during the legislative elections, “we are far from it,” he concludes.
“In another world, imagine that a single candidate from the left manages to make between 20 and 25% in the first round”, that is to say the accumulation of the scores granted to the various candidates according to the last polls, projects the researcher. “It would then be in the range to be in the second round. But he would not have a reserve of voters, since he would have already made all the left! “. An improbable union for an unthinkable victory, here is the verdict of the primary advanced by Anne Hidalgo.