Corona: This is how hotspots Saxony, Thuringia and Bavaria are fighting the fourth wave

Corona hotspots
That is why the corona situation in Bavaria, Thuringia and Saxony is particularly dramatic

Petra Köpping is like everyone else. “I’m really fed up with Corona,” said Saxony’s Minister of Health this week. “But the virus doesn’t care.” The pandemic is raging with full force again. The number of cases is exploding all over Germany, but nowhere as in Saxony, Thuringia and Bavaria. “Those are the three hotspots that we have in Germany,” Köpping also knows.

The map of Germany from the Robert Koch Institute mainly shows the south-east in dark red. Nationwide there was the sad record of 37,120 new infections reported on Friday. The seven-day incidence reached 169.9 – that is the corona infections per 100,000 inhabitants within seven days. In Thuringia, however, it was more than twice as high at 386.9. Saxony was almost equal with 385.7, then Bavaria with 256.8. In many districts of the three countries the value is over 500, in the Upper Bavarian district of Miesbach even over 700.

3G and 2G options are set to push case numbers

The three countries want to turn things around with stricter rules for unvaccinated people – a foretaste of what could come nationwide. The health ministers of the federal states agreed on Friday to enforce at least 3G for access to restaurants and events – so only those who have been vaccinated, those who have recovered and who have been tested will be admitted.

In regions with a particularly high number of infections and full clinics, 2G should also be “a regular option”, as the managing Federal Minister of Health Jens Spahn (CDU) put it. Then many doors open only to those who have recovered and who have been vaccinated, a test is of no use. This is exactly what Saxony wants from next week – in order to avoid even tougher measures. “If we take too much time now, it will end in a lockdown like last year,” warned Prime Minister Michael Kretschmer (CDU) on Deutschlandfunk.

Pandemic of the unvaccinated and children

Kretschmer no longer wanted to talk so much about the reasons for the dramatic wave in his country. But for experts, the connections are clear. “That correlates clearly with the vaccination level,” says the Leipzig epidemiologist Markus Scholz, who mainly analyzes the situation in Saxony. Low vaccination rate means high infection rate. Saxony brings up the rear when it comes to vaccination: 57 percent of the population were fully vaccinated as of Friday, compared to 67 percent nationwide. Thuringia was also below average with 60.9 percent, as was Bavaria with 64.9 percent.

That is not the only explanation. In previous corona waves, it was suspected that the high average age in Saxony and Thuringia could play a role. The rural structures were mentioned, the closer family ties, the sociable club culture. Border traffic to the Czech Republic and Austria could also play a role, because the corona situation in neighboring countries is even worse than in Germany. Thuringia is not on the border.

In addition to the low vaccination rate, the Erfurt Ministry of Health sees two main reasons for the high numbers: the accumulation of corona cases in kindergartens and schools and the late end of the summer holidays. In addition to Saxony, Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg, Thuringia was one of the federal states with the latest holiday end. According to the ministry, the incidences among 6 to 17-year-olds were over 600 in the last few weeks. Three effects could come together: the late return to travel, the beginning of the cold season and closer contact indoors.

In Bavaria, the border area with Austria has been particularly hard hit. Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) said this week that there is not only a nationwide, but also a Bavaria-wide north-south divide in vaccination rates. However: In counties with particularly high incidences, the vaccination rate is sometimes above the Bavarian average.

Bavaria tightened corona rules

It often remains a mystery to the authorities where so many people are infected with Corona. “The infection process is diffuse”, it is said simply from the district office in the hotspot Miesbach. You can no longer control it, the numbers rose exponentially. Contacts would no longer be followed up, and quarantine orders would no longer be checked.

After several municipalities in southeast Bavaria had tightened the corona rules regionally, the state government followed suit last Wednesday: For hotspots with an incidence of more than 300 and an intensive care unit utilization of 80 percent, the strictest rules of the corona traffic light will apply from the weekend in the Free State. Much is then only accessible to vaccinated and convalescent people. However, restaurants and body-hugging service providers such as hairdressers, where a negative PCR test is sufficient, as well as local public transport and retail are excluded. Students across Bavaria have to wear masks again after the autumn break.

“Vaccinated risk groups are now at risk again”

Thuringia is also trying to tighten the reins, albeit a little less strictly than Saxony. The Thuringian Minister of Health Heike Werner (Linke) relies on 3G and thus on restrictions for unvaccinated people, especially since the situation in the country’s clinics is worsening. In nursing homes, she wants to expand the obligation to test for employees. The health ministers of all countries agreed on this on Friday. And they gave a clear signal for booster vaccinations six months after the first immunization.

Epidemiologist Scholz thinks this is right, because people who have been vaccinated shouldn’t feel too safe either. The vaccination protection decreases significantly after six months, the fastest in older people. “The vaccinated risk groups are now at risk again, so you have to be careful,” says the Leipzig scientist.

That is why people over 70 years of age urgently need a “booster”, and such a refresher would also make sense for everyone else. “I don’t quite understand why people hesitate for so long,” says Scholz. “This is really the highest railway now.”