Status: 07/22/2021 6:24 p.m.
The corona numbers in Germany are currently low, but that could change, according to the RKI. In order to avoid another high increase in infections, preparations should therefore be made now.
The Robert Koch Institute (RKI) still speaks of a relaxed infection situation in Germany – even if the seven-day incidence is slowly increasing again. But with a view to the colder seasons, the institute warns to prevent an impending increase in the number of corona cases as much as possible.
In one Strategy paper the RKI has developed scenarios of how the corona situation could develop nationwide in autumn and winter – depending on various factors that could influence the spread of the virus in these months.
Virus is unlikely to go away
Germany is currently in a transition phase, according to the RKI paper: from a pandemic to an endemic event. Which means that the coronavirus will no longer completely disappear, but that there will be infections with the pathogen again and again. The RKI considers it unrealistic that the virus could be completely wiped out. It will continue to spread in Germany and globally.
For autumn and winter, the institute assumes that the number of cases will increase again. The RKI predicts the peak of this increase for the first two months of the coming year, then the infections could subside again. Most infections are to be expected among citizens under the age of 60 and among those under the age of twelve. The RKI emphasizes that the strategy paper is only about assumptions and recommendations based on them.
And the recommendation of the researchers is: Prepare now to keep a renewed increase in infections and their effects as low as possible so that “the number of serious disease courses, deaths and the burden on the health system can be kept low and population-related measures can be minimized “.
Now prepare “booster vaccinations”
Vaccination remains one of the most important factors. A high vaccination rate means a lower risk of a strong spread of the pathogen. However, the RKI no longer believes that it is no longer possible to achieve the desired herd immunity by autumn and winter. In order to continue to vaccinate as many people as possible, the RKI recommends targeted vaccination campaigns, for example in certain professional groups or in areas where people live together in a confined space.
With regard to vaccination, the institute also calls for preparations for so-called “booster vaccinations” to be made now – especially for the elderly and other risk groups. The scientists assume that the number of so-called vaccination breakthroughs will also increase, i.e. infections in people who have already been fully vaccinated against the virus, but who have been vaccinated a certain time ago. The necessary vaccine must now be ordered for these “booster vaccinations” and the appropriate organization must be taken care of.
Armed for the new school year
However, precautions should not only be taken for older age groups, but also for the younger ones. In schools, “structural, structural, organizational and technical measures” should be intensified and completed by the end of the summer vacation, the RKI appeals. This could mean increasing digital resources or teaching staff, for example. In addition, the classrooms would have to be equipped with ventilation and filter systems.
Continue to adhere to preventive measures in everyday life
As a further preventive measure, the RKI calls for simple protective measures to be retained for the time being, such as the minimum distance, wearing a protective mask in certain areas or working in the home office and restrictions on the number of participants at major events. The public should continue to be called upon to provide extensive information to prevent an increased incidence of infections by personally adhering to the measures.