This article shows the most important figures and graphics on the course of the corona pandemic. The upper part is devoted to the situation in Germany – with regard to infections, patients in intensive care, deaths and vaccinations. As far as possible, the data are shown differentiated according to regions and age groups.
Number of new cases
The number of new infections is a crucial indicator. If this value falls, the virus is under control. As soon as the number rises again, there is a threat of a relapse into an exponential spread, the very quickly uncontrollable can be. The incidence calculation of the RKI is available in criticismbecause it is systematically too low.
It is therefore important to look not only at the current value, but especially at the development of the incidence. It also allows a worsening situation to be recognized early on at the local level and allows conclusions to be drawn about how many people will have to be treated in the hospital or even in the intensive care unit at a later point in time. However, it is also correct that, thanks to the large number of vaccinated people, less severe cases are to be expected in the same number of newly infected people as in earlier high incidence periods. The respective calculation basis is given in the source under the graphic.
The R value
Another important factor: the number of reproductions. It indicates how many other people an infected person infects on average. The Robert Koch Institute calculates them using the new infections. If the R value is above 1, the virus is spreading exponentially. An R below 1 means that the spread could be slowed down for the time being.
In Germany, the federal and state governments have decided to relocate the management of the epidemic more to the regions. The number of new infections is monitored individually for each district and each urban district.
The ICU patient and age
The age distribution of the infected plays a major role, because the likelihood of severe courses increases sharply with age. A rule of thumb: over the age of 80, one in ten infected people dies unless they have been protected by a vaccination or an infection that has survived; with decreasing age, the risk of death decreases by a factor of ten every twenty years.
That is a possible explanationwhy there were initially comparatively few intensive care patients and deaths in autumn 2020 despite the increasing number of cases. If the virus spread uncontrollably, it was to be expected that the severe courses would increase again. And that happened in winter 2020/2021.
As of the end of August, detailed data on hospitalizations will not be published reliably machine-readable. Once a week the RKI publishes an overview of the hospitalization incidence in all federal states, which you can see here (This page is not optimized for mobile devices).
What is the situation with the vaccinations?
People in Germany have been vaccinated against the corona virus since December 2020. In the first few months there was still a shortage of vaccination appointments, but the Stiko now recommends the Covid 19 vaccination to almost all people aged twelve and over, and there is an abundance of vaccines. However, there are many people who have not yet been vaccinated. According to the RKI, a vaccination rate of 85 percent would be necessary to achieve herd immunity. Even with lower numbers, however, a certain herd protection is given.
What is the corona situation like around the world?
The epidemic started in China in late December 2019 and then spread across the world within a few weeks. Some countries have since been hit significantly harder than others.
This table shows the current status in all countries of the world. The data come from Johns Hopkins University, which uses official statistics as well as media as a source, which often provide data more quickly. The number of new infections is always a moving average over the past week. Fluctuations resulting from the fact that fewer cases are reported on weekends are eliminated – although one can assume that as many people become infected from them as on weekdays.
Tests and positive rate
These data are only a part of reality. There are a large number of patients who are not recorded – and may not even know that they are already carrying the virus. In African countries in particular, the test capacities are far from sufficient, where the number of unreported cases is likely to be particularly high. A useful metric for the test numbers is the positive rate. It describes the relationship between positive tests and the total number of tests. If it is below about five percent, a pandemic in a country is considered controllable. Higher values indicate that insufficient testing is being carried out.
Excess mortality
Since tests are carried out to different extents in different countries, the absolute number of cases can only be compared to a limited extent. One can also be at least skeptical about reports from authoritarian regimes as to the extent to which they reflect reality. An additional look at the deaths is therefore useful for an international comparison. These are easier to compare. However, since some Covid deaths are not recorded as such, statisticians also look at the total excess mortality in the countries.
Excess mortality occurs when more people die than would be statistically expected. To do this, week by week the number of deceased in 2020 and 2021 is compared with the average of previous years. It concerns all deaths regardless of the cause of death. Since the registry and statistics offices receive, process and publish the deaths with a delay, a reliable statement can only be made after a few weeks.