Corona measures lifted: Denmark’s alleged capitulation

In Germany there is currently a lot of discussion about lifting the corona measures in Denmark. Is the country taking a “bold step” – or has it simply “surrendered” to the Omicron variant?

Denmark has lifted all restrictions due to the corona pandemic. While some politicians and sections of the public would like to emulate the Danish line, German Health Minister Karl Lauterbach said he does not welcome the easing. “That’s Denmark, that’s not us,” said Lauterbach. Denmark has a higher vaccination rate, and the omicron wave started much earlier there.

Some scientists in Germany agree with this assessment. The mathematician Kristan Schneider from the Mittweida University of Applied Sciences, who models the infection process, told the “Bild” and “t-online” that the Danish approach was “an act of desperation” and “a capitulation” to the infection process. “Denmark does not dare to take a brave step, but was brought to its knees by the virus,” said Schneider.

Logic like in the GDR?

At the request of ARD fact finder Schneider confirmed his statements, which would result from the Danish incidences: “There is a 7-day average of about 45,000,” says Schneider. “If you assume that 40 to 60 percent of all infections go undetected, the number of unreported cases is 75,000 new infections per day. These are infected for twelve days. Then you have a number of 900,000 to 1.35 million active infections. ” These numbers are undisputed. With 5.8 million inhabitants, this is one sixth to one fifth of the population. It is obvious that “there would be systemic failures” if “all those infected actually had to be isolated”. Denmark therefore had no choice.

Since there are now fewer tests, the numbers would soon drop. But that doesn’t mean that there isn’t a problem: “In Great Britain, Switzerland and the USA, the number of hospitalized children is increasing enormously. In a few weeks you can evaluate how sensible Denmark’s decision was,” Schneider continued. And: “In the GDR, the housing crisis was solved by the distribution center no longer accepting new applications for apartments. Then the Central Committee claimed that there was no longer a housing problem because there were no new applications. Denmark uses the same logic.”

Danish researchers disagree

The Danish chemist Kasper Planeta Kepp, who has published, among other things, on the structure and mutations of the spike protein of Sars-Cov-2, contradicted this representation. For days he has been tweeting about interpretations of the Danish situation, which he describes as disinformation.

Political scientist and government advisor Michael Bang Petersen explained the Danish decision in detail on Twitter in English. In it he describes why the Danish experts, based on the lower burden of disease in the intensive care units with Omikron, found a large decoupling of the infection process and the number of severe courses – in a largely vaccinated population.

No legal basis anymore

When asked, Petersen explained that ARD fact finder, he understands “why the Danish decision is causing international irritation”. “How can we keep it all up while the numbers go up?” However, the answer is quite simple if you look closely at the data: “We have a very good health database and we see that the coincidence of omicron and a largely vaccinated population has simply changed the situation. We have high case numbers, yes, but we just don’t have a high disease burden anymore.”

According to Petersen, the Danish laws are clear: “If there is no longer an acute threat to the population, then there must be no further measures. Nobody says that there is no longer any danger at an individual level, for example for people at risk. But we handing the responsibility for their protection back from the state to the citizens, as required by law. And that also means that there is so much trust in the Danish authorities and the state.”

Official figures support Danish course

The Danish “Statens Serum Institut” (SSI), which is comparable to the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), also claims that excess mortality in Denmark is falling. In the fifth calendar week, this decreased again in all age groups, although many people with positive test results were among the dead due to the high incidence. During the delta wave, excess mortality was significantly higher than in previous years – but the value is now declining and is approaching the annual average, reported the SSI.

The pressure is also steadily decreasing in the hospitals: at least a third of those who tested positive for corona in the hospital are incidental findings that are being treated for other diseases. The number of people who had to go to the hospital because of Covid-19, on the other hand, continued to fall, the SSI announced at the end of January, as well as the number of Covid-19 patients in the intensive care units. An investigation had also shown that probably every third adult in Denmark was infected with Corona in the period from November 1, 2021 to the end of January 2022.

Numbers in Greater Copenhagen are falling

Meanwhile, the number of new infections in the Copenhagen area is falling continuously. The reason is vaccinations and growing immunity in the population after an infection, says Henrik Ullum, director of the SSI. The situation in the schools is also easing, reports Danish Radio. The Copenhagen area has long had the highest incidence values, but rural areas are now at the top.

Ullum does not want to speak of general immunity yet. Other experts are also still cautious: Rasmus Kristoffer Pedersen from the University of Roskilde believes that it is crucial how many older people are still infected before the virus can no longer spread quickly.

Transferability to Germany remains controversial

In the ARD talk show “Hard but Fair” Opinions on the Danish course also differed: while former Family Minister Kristina Schröder and CSU Secretary General Markus Blume called for measures to be withdrawn soon, Bundestag Vice President Katrin Göring-Eckardt (Greens) and lung specialist Cihan Celik were more skeptical.

Germany has over three million older unvaccinated people who are at high risk. The poor vaccination rate, especially in these groups, can quickly overload the hospitals again if Omikron gets there in full. For Göring-Eckardt, the only way to freedom, as in Denmark, is through compulsory vaccination.

No general all-clear

The basis for lifting the measures in Denmark is therefore not a general all-clear, but the assessment of experts that Corona is no longer a threat to society as a whole, so the restrictions must be lifted in accordance with the law. In addition to a higher vaccination rate, the country probably also has more people who have recovered and a very good database. The Danish experts therefore do not see their step as a “surrender” but as a logical and democratically necessary step.