What is urgently needed: a new system to map the corona situation in Bavaria and to derive future measures for public life from it. The state government has not yet found such an instrument, which combines the increasing number of infections in the omicron wave and at the same time the somewhat more relaxed situation in the hospitals – and therefore made decisions about new hotspot regulations at the cabinet meeting on Monday, but also about simplifications, for example for culture, was postponed by a good week. All other measures such as mask requirements, access rules with 2 G or 2 G Plus or the curfew in the catering trade will remain in place anyway.
The Council of Ministers had decided neither to tighten nor relax and wanted to “drive on sight,” said Head of State Florian Herrmann (CSU). At the moment, they want to avoid “greater relief that will catch up with us again”, and after all, a “Hü-und-Hott” strategy is difficult to convey. As Herrmann indicated with Minister of Health Klaus Holetschek (CSU) and Minister of Education Michael Piazolo (FW), there will be a “clear perspective” next week in areas such as culture, sports or youth work – provided that the burden on the clinics does not worsen. Among other things, it is conceivable that the number of guests in theaters or cinemas would double to 50 percent of capacity, which some observers had of course already expected this week. Piazolo spoke of an “if-then” principle, it was “responsible action to say, we’ll give ourselves time this week”.
The Free State remains “caution and prudence in the team,” said Herrmann, but also stands for an optimistic attitude and “a sense of proportion”. Prime Minister Markus Söder (CSU) recently introduced the concept of a sense of proportion for future pandemic policy into the debate, and his recent statements have often been interpreted as an upcoming change of strategy.
There are new highs every day
So what’s coming? The head of the state chancellery, representing Söder, first looked at the numbers: the incidence in Free State was 551 on Monday, a week ago there were still 528 new infections per 100,000 inhabitants over seven days. There are “new highs every day,” said Herrmann, 22 districts and urban districts are above the incidence of 600, and reaching the 1000 mark in some places is probably a matter of days. More than 75 percent of virus samples have now shown that omicron is the dominant variant. The occupancy of the intensive care beds, on the other hand, fell within a week, from 443 to 407; that’s below the red level of the hospital traffic light, which originally went in place of incidence in the summer. However, Herrmann reported “unfortunately an increase” in the normal hospitalization of Covid patients.
The government does not want to make a binding interpretation of the link between infection and clinical treatment, and the research views are also not uniform, it said. What is certain for Hermann: The “logic from the Delta variant” is not “applicable one-to-one to Omikron”. Therefore, the hotspot rule, which puts municipalities in a quasi-lockdown at an incidence of 1000, was suspended last week. It is unclear whether and with what value there will be a “special hotspot regulation” next week.
Health Minister Holetschek added that instead of deleting them, he could imagine further developing the rules for badly affected regions – but one cannot say that 1500 is the new 1000 or anything like that. The burden on the clinic is the “decisive factor”, in his opinion it is conceivable that a new system would contain both: the incidence as a “seismograph” and elements of the clinic traffic light. The evaluation by the Prime Ministers’ Conference before the next cabinet should also be included in the new “monitoring”. Omikron can be seen “as an opportunity,” said Holetschek, but it is unclear whether and when a so-called endemic state will be reached with it.
Anyone who claims leadership “must also lead”
The state government is still pleading for a general obligation to vaccinate, because of the protection against more severe courses. Holetschek said that a quick prescription for everyone is also advisable because those affected by facility-related vaccination requirements, such as nursing staff, would otherwise feel “stigmatized”. As he did recently in an SZ interview, he criticized the new federal government for not creating its own bill, but instead relying on group motions in parliament: Whoever claims leadership in Berlin “must also lead”. Minister of Education Piazolo spoke of a good start to school in face-to-face classes, and the “safety net” had proven itself. When it comes to air purifiers, Bavaria has the best equipment of all federal states. Although there are quarantine cases, 97 percent of the classes are currently in full operation. Nevertheless, he called on the teachers to “use a sense of proportion” when it comes to proof of performance. The “squirrel principle” is out of place – just like the animal with nuts before winter now has to do schoolwork before a conceivable quarantine.
Criticism came from the opposition on Monday. “The state of emergency is being extended in an endless loop. There are no plans to relax it. The reasons given are not epidemiologically understandable,” said AfD parliamentary group leader Ulrich Singer. SPD chairman Florian von Brunn would have liked to see more viewers in the theater now, “otherwise massive damage to culture can no longer be avoided.” In gastronomy, as actually decided by the federal and state governments, 2 G Plus should apply, which is also an incentive to boost. According to Brunn, the curfew could be pushed back from 10 p.m. to midnight “as a compensation”.