It is not easy to talk about the consequences of an event that is not over. The corona pandemic is not over. The fourth wave is rolling over Germany with full force. “Yes. It won’t be easy this winter,” says Berit Lange. The doctor works at the Helmholtz Center for Infection Research (HZI) in Braunschweig, she heads the clinical epidemiology. There are several developments: There is this variant of the virus, which is much easier to transmit than last winter. The vaccination rate is not sufficient. “Those who are not vaccinated can continue to put a significant strain on the health system,” says Lange. And, she cites as the third development these days: “We have a decreasing effectiveness of vaccinations, especially among the elderly.” Some hospitals are already overloaded, the doctor warns.
Lange has a few recommendations on what to do to stop this fourth wave “a little” and these measures do not work immediately either. The vaccination gaps would have to be closed. That is the top priority for Lange. And booster vaccinations are important. “We have to rebuild the machinery that we had in the summer.” People are ready to have their vaccination protection boosted with a third dose. “You have to see whether it will be possible to close relevant vaccination gaps in adults,” said Lange. There is doubt in her words. The situation is serious, says the doctor and hopes that when it becomes clear how high the risk of unvaccinated people is this winter of contracting Covid-19, people will still be convinced to be vaccinated. “Whatever we can do, we have to try. That is the most effective instrument,” says Lange.
With the measures that were taken in Germany in the fight against the economic consequences of the pandemic, the discussants on the stage – Bitkom President Achim Berg, Hypo-Vereinsbank Management Board spokesman Michael Diederich and economist Marcel Fratzscher, President of the DIW, are not at all like that dissatisfied. “What we did together helped to save the system from an even bigger shock,” says HVB man Diederich. He means state aid such as the economic stabilization fund and short-time work benefits. Everyone – politicians, financial institutions, parties, business – “worked together excellently to avoid worse things.” But how hard is this winter going to be? What interventions are necessary, how strong do they have to be to break the fourth wave? Not only bankers ask themselves such questions. Perhaps it was no longer as it was today, says Diederich: “But we have proven that if we need it, we can do it well together.”
The economist believes that help will still be needed next year
The state aid certainly also supported companies “that would not have survived like this,” says economist Fratzscher: “But politics cannot and should not choose which companies they are.” Fratzscher expects that help will still be necessary next year. “It is better to make the mistake of letting economic aid run a little longer, maybe half a year longer than half a year too short.” Fratzscher wouldn’t be a good economist if he didn’t think ahead, far beyond the pandemic.
The question will be how to return this aid after the pandemic. And the economist immediately puts another question afterwards: What will happen in the next five years? There are major challenges: the digital and ecological transformation of the economy, structural change. “Many companies will not survive the transformation,” says Fratzscher. He knows that sounds harsh. Economists like him talk about “creative destruction”. This is a term coined by the economist Joseph Schumpeter. The old disappears, new ideas, young companies prevail. Who survives and who perishes should not be decided by the state by providing help and “choosing national champions,” says Fratzscher. The state should create good framework conditions and competition, and ensure good infrastructure. “Then the companies have to prove themselves.” In the pandemic, Fratzscher found subsidies right, in structural change they were wrong.
“We have become a bit satisfied and lazy in Germany.”
As an example, Fratzscher cites the subsidies that Germany gives each year directly and indirectly to fossil fuels: 70 billion euros. Fratzscher repeats the number again. This also includes the price of gasoline. “That is something that is harmful,” says Fratzscher: such aids slow down the transformation. He hopes the new federal government will remove such subsidies. That is damn difficult for politics: “You have got used to it.” That is perhaps the biggest challenge in the next five years to break up the “very conservative, state structures” in Germany. “We actually want to keep and preserve everything. We have become a bit satisfied and too lazy in Germany,” says the economist Fratzscher.
Of course, mistakes were made too. Achim Berg, President of the Bitkom digital association, is someone who likes to point out deficits. According to him, the failures in digitization were made long before the pandemic. “The pandemic brutally exposed the failures,” says Berg. What he then complains about, he has been complaining about for years. “We live on a digital heap in administration, education and infrastructure,” says Berg. He expressly excludes the economy. He likes to back up his criticism with his own experiences. Last year he traveled to Spain. On the outbound flight, he filled out an app for entry, and back to Germany he filled out a paper. He then asked the stewardess what was happening with the form. She told him that it would be put in an envelope, then put down and “then let’s see.” “I was really ashamed of that,” says Berg. Unfortunately, he can tell many such experiences. The reasons: federalism, “amazing knowledge gaps” of politicians in matters of digitization, data protection. The really sad thing about them is that Berg has been lamenting these abuses for years.