It has been apparent for some time now: the current year is likely to set a temperature record. Now a major climate institution is committing itself.
According to the EU climate change service Copernicus, the current year will be the warmest globally since records began in the mid-19th century.
The organization said it was virtually impossible for December to change anything. The warmest year so far was 2016.
Peak value had become apparent
It had previously been assumed that 2023 would see a peak in global average temperatures. In mid-November, the US climate agency NOAA said there was a probability of more than 99 percent that the year would be the warmest since 1850. However, none of the relevant institutions have yet made a complete decision.
Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), pointed out in a statement that the year 2023 had set temperature records for several months – including November. “Exceptional November global temperatures, including two days that reached temperatures two degrees above pre-industrial temperatures, mean 2023 will be the warmest year on record.”
Average 1.46 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial Reference period
When asked, a Copernicus spokesman explained that global average December temperatures would have to be extremely cold so that 2023 would not be the warmest year. However, such low temperatures can be ruled out because the natural climate phenomenon El Niño continues to operate, which has a warming effect.
Up to and including November, global average temperatures were 1.46 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial reference period 1850-1900, as Copernicus further announced. So far, 2023 is 0.13 degrees warmer than the first eleven months of the previous record holder, 2016.
Global CO2 emissions continue to rise
“As long as greenhouse gas concentrations continue to rise, we cannot expect any results other than those observed this year,” said C3S director Carlo Buontempo. “The temperature will continue to rise and with it the effects of heatwaves and droughts.”
Just on Tuesday, the Global Carbon Budget report showed that global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels such as coal, crude oil and natural gas are continuing to rise. They are expected to reach a peak in 2023 at 36.8 billion tons per year. That is 1.1 percent more than in 2022 and 1.4 percent more than in the pre-Corona year 2019.