COP28 is supposed to end on December 12, but all the last COPs have passed the planned closing date (AFP / Karim SAHIB)
The contours of an agreement on the end of fossil fuels remain unclear six days before the end of COP28, where its disputed Emirati president Sultan Al Jaber announced on the night of Wednesday to Thursday to regain control of the negotiations, pleading for find compromises.
After a thunderous start, thanks to the historic agreement on the climate damage fund for vulnerable countries, the first week of negotiations in Dubai concluded on Wednesday evening with a vague status quo.
On the eve of the traditional day of rest, Thursday, between the two weeks of the conference, the gradual exit of oil, gas and coal is indeed on the table in the draft agreement, to the satisfaction of the countries islands, Africa, the European Union or the United States.
But it is weighed against a radical option: erasing all mention of fossil fuels, a reflection of the blockage at this stage of China or Arab countries, Saudi Arabia in the lead.
Late Wednesday evening, the negotiators of the 195 signatories of the Paris agreement took note of two days of impasse, after laborious debates… but without slamming doors or alarmism in the aisles of the gigantic Dubai Exhibition Center.
The president-designate of the Emirates, Sultan Al Jaber, then intervened in a plenary session to call on the countries to leave their “comfort zone and find common ground” in order to obtain a “very ambitious” final agreement. here Tuesday.
While the COPs usually end late, the methodical and divisive boss of the oil company Adnoc even indicated that he was counting on an “orderly closing of the conference on Tuesday December 12 at 11 a.m. at the latest” (07:00 GMT).
COP27 was only concluded after two nights of extension.
He asked negotiators for “proposals that create bridges on fossil fuels, renewables and energy efficiency, aligned with science.”
“We must obtain results that guide our action this decade,” he insisted, using language dear to Europeans, very attached to short-term objectives. By 2030, emissions must fall by 43% compared to 2019 to hope to meet the limit of 1.5°C of warming, according to the IPCC.
– “Lots of postures”-
To achieve this, Sultan Al Jaber promised to present his battle plan on Friday, eagerly awaited by those who accused him of having been behind the heart of the negotiations and more busy preparing non-binding commitments from governments, of industry and finance, whose announcements have been made since the opening of the summit on November 30.
Annual CO2 emissions by region and highest emitting countries, from 1850 to 2022 (AFP / Julia Han JANICKI)
The discussions will take a more political turn, with the arrival this weekend of ministers, supposed to take over from the technical negotiators.
Success is still uncertain. “We have an initial text on the table, but it is a pile of wishes full of posturing,” Simon Stiell, the head of UN Climate, admonished Wednesday morning.
The exit from fossil fuels is, with some nuances, supported by a majority of countries. Several options are nevertheless on the table, in particular the objective of an “orderly and fair exit from fossil fuels”.
In the great art of climate diplomacy, the appearance of this new formulation foreshadows a possible consensus which would set a universal objective… while giving more margin to certain countries, depending on their degree of development or their dependence on hydrocarbons.
South Africa, for example, is having great difficulty closing its coal-fired power plants, which produce 90% of electricity but are not enough, with residents suffering constant power cuts.
Anomalies in the average global surface air temperature each year in November, from 1940 to 2023, compared to the 1991-2020 average for the months of November (AFP / Jonathan WALTER)
Faced with the challenge of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the countries of the world have a “common responsibility, but we have different national circumstances”, South African Minister Barbara Creecy, appointed with her Danish counterpart, told AFP to play a crucial intermediary role between ministers in the home stretch.
Fossils are not the only subject of tug-of-war. Debates will also be fierce on financial aid to poor countries, adaptation to climate change and the revision of the rules for establishing national plans to reduce greenhouse gases.