An activist protests against fossil fuels on the stage of COP28 in Dubai, December 11, 2023 (AFPTV / -)
The COP28 negotiations continued late into the night on Tuesday around the compromise proposed by the Emirati president, widely rejected by the countries for its lack of ambition on the exit from fossil fuels.
In the early hours of the theoretical last day of the 28th United Nations Climate Conference in Dubai, Western countries, island states as well as African and Latin American countries reiterated their opposition to the text during a closed-door meeting, according to negotiators contacted by AFP.
“This is the last COP where we will have the chance to be able to keep 1.5°C alive”, the most ambitious objective of the Paris agreement, declared American envoy John Kerry to his counterparts , during this session which ended around 2:30 a.m. (11:30 p.m. GMT).
A new text, the result of these nocturnal exchanges on the 13th day of the summit, is expected during the day of Tuesday, according to delegates. But the bet of the president of COP28, Sultan Al Jaber, to obtain a historic agreement at 11:00 a.m. (07:00 GMT), the anniversary of the Paris agreement, is now lost.
“This is not a problem for the European delegation, we have time and we are prepared to stay a little longer,” assured the head of German diplomacy Annalena Baerbock.
On Monday evening, Sultan Al Jaber, also head of the Emirati oil and gas company Adnoc, proposed a draft agreement which leaves complete freedom for countries to choose their way of “reducing” fossil fuels.
The 21-page text no longer sets any common objective of “exit” from oil, gas and coal, although envisaged in previous versions, which would constitute a historic decision if it were adopted by consensus of 194 countries, plus l European Union, having ratified the Paris Agreement.
Fossil fuels are responsible for around two-thirds of greenhouse gas emissions, the cause of global warming and its attendant disasters (droughts, heatwaves, floods, etc.). Warming since the industrial era could even expect 1.5°C from the start of the 2030s, if humanity does not reduce its emissions by 43% by then compared to 2019.
– “Death sentence” –
“The Republic of the Marshall Islands has not come here to sign its death warrant,” thundered its Minister of Natural Resources, John Silk, after the publication of the text.
The European Union considers the project “insufficient” and the United States calls for it to be “substantially” strengthened.
Representatives of indigenous peoples from around the world during the people’s plenary at COP28 in Dubai, December 11, 2023 (AFP / -)
NGOs and experts denounce a project listing non-binding options, a “shopping list” or an “à la carte menu” putting the development of solar, wind, nuclear, hydrogen or that of carbon capture techniques.
In their infancy, these are favored by the fossil industry and the producing countries, Saudi Arabia in the lead, but will have only a weak impact in the current crucial decade.
“There are elements which are not acceptable as they stand,” declared the French Minister of Energy Transition, Agnès Pannier-Runacher.
“I am surprised by the lack of ambition,” confides another Western negotiator, judging the text “uninspired from start to finish, poorly designed, repetitive, incoherent…”
But, as a source at the Emirati presidency of COP28 indicated, this is part of the negotiation game: “It’s a movement of openness, we will have to build from that.”
– China and United States –
“We have made progress but we still have a lot to do,” admitted Sultan Al Jaber who is seeking the balance point between Saudi Arabia and its allies on the one hand, facing the hundred or so countries in favor of exit from fossil fuels.
Eyes are also on China and the United States, the world’s two largest emitters of greenhouse gases (41% between them).
The conference center where COP28 is being held in Dubai, December 10, 2023 (AFP / Giuseppe CACACE)
In November, in the Sunnylands declaration, the two powers agreed to avoid talking about an “exit” from fossil fuels but emphasized the role of renewable energies to gradually replace them.
China, which plays a fundamental role in rallying the developing world towards a final consensus, “wants to stick to the Sunnylands formula while the United States wants to go further”, analyzes Li Shuo, of the think tank Asia Society.
Progress on energy objectives is also suspended from parallel progress in other negotiated texts, in particular on adaptation to the consequences of global warming and on financial aid to developing countries, which are key to convincing the South to accept an agreement.
“I urge all countries to remain focused on 1.5°C and to ensure that the ambition for this decade is high enough,” reacted on X Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency .
For Alden Meyer, of the E3G think tank, “we are in a big crisis: the next few days will tell whether we have a viable international climate regime or not.”
“COP28 is now on the verge of total failure,” Al Gore, former American vice-president and climate activist, went so far as to write about X.