Despite all efforts to protect the climate, global carbon dioxide emissions from the combustion of fossil raw materials will continue to rise in 2023. Total output is expected to ultimately be 36.8 billion tons, 1.1 percent above the previous year’s level. The scientists from the “Global Carbon Project” come to this conclusion in a new report. In addition to fossil sources, there are emissions from land use amounting to 4.1 billion tons of CO₂, for example because forests are cleared.
CO₂ emissions have been falling in some regions such as the USA or the European Union for several years. In 2023, emissions fell particularly sharply: emissions in the EU fell by 7.4 percent and in the USA by three percent.
However, this decline is more than offset elsewhere. In China, greenhouse gas emissions are expected to increase by four percent this year, which the researchers attribute primarily to the fact that the economy picked up again after the Covid lockdowns last year. According to calculations, emissions in India will climb by 8.2 percent in 2023, particularly because the country relies heavily on coal-fired power plants to meet its growing electricity needs. The expansion of renewables is not keeping pace with demand. This means that India is now emitting more CO₂ than the EU for the first time.
Nevertheless, per capita emissions in India are still well below the global average at two tonnes per inhabitant. In Germany, each resident causes an average of eight tons of CO₂ per year. In the United Arab Emirates, the host of the COP28 climate conference currently taking place, the figure is around 26 tonnes per capita.
Emissions are at least increasing more slowly than before
“All countries need to decarbonize their economies faster than they are currently doing,” says Corinne Le Quéré, a climate researcher at Britain’s University of East Anglia and co-author of the report. With current greenhouse gas emissions, the remaining CO₂ budget to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees will be used up within seven years. “Time is running out very quickly,” says Le Quéré. However, there are currently no signs of a decline in the use of fossil fuels, as would be necessary to achieve the climate goals.
Emissions from natural gas rose by 0.5 percent over the course of the year, the combustion of coal increased by 1.1 percent, and that of petroleum by 1.5 percent. In addition to China’s economic recovery, the researchers attribute the high demand for oil to the growing international air traffic following the Covid restrictions.
But the growth in emissions from fossil fuels has at least slowed down significantly, emphasize climate researchers. “We were in a much worse situation than when we started,” says Le Quéré; it refers to the first “Global Carbon Budget” report almost 20 years ago. At that time, global warming was still expected to reach four degrees Celsius by 2100. Researchers now expect an increase of three degrees Celsius by the end of the century if the current policy is maintained. “We have saved a degree,” concludes Le Quéré. Nevertheless, the efforts of nation states were not enough to achieve the climate goals.
According to Glen Peters, this is because the world is focusing on “only one half of the problem.” “Renewables are increasing rapidly, that’s great,” says the head of research at the Cicero Climate Institute in Oslo. “But we are not taking any action to phase out fossil fuels.”
It would also help to stop the loss of forests. The so-called land use change currently causes emissions of 4.1 billion tons per year because the CO₂ stored in trees escapes into the atmosphere. Deforestation is probably declining slightly, but the researchers point out that the uncertainties here are large. “Emissions from land use are much higher than we would like to see in light of the Paris climate goals,” says Julia Pongratz, professor of geography at the University of Munich.
At the same time, trees also remove CO₂ from the air. This contribution to climate protection is estimated at two billion tons per year. It could be higher if not so many trees were felled. There are also other sinks, such as the oceans.
Nevertheless, such natural sinks will not be sufficient in the foreseeable future to compensate for greenhouse gases from fossil sources, says Pongratz: “There is no way around reducing emissions.”