Consequences of the NRW election: It gets restless in the traffic lights

Clap for the SPD, staggering Liberals, self-confident Greens: The results of the NRW election are an explosive mixture for the traffic light coalition in the federal government. Governing will be much more difficult.

A smack for the chancellor, ailing liberals, only the Greens have tailwind: For the traffic light government in the federal government, this is an explosive mixture. After the election in North Rhine-Westphalia, it should now be much more difficult to stick together. The fact that results in the most populous federal state repeatedly have consequences for federal politics is considered by observers to be undisputed. Around 2017, when the country mother Hannelore Kraft, who had been popular for a long time, failed with a crash against Armin Laschet. The defeat of the SPD heralded Angela Merkel’s fourth federal election victory.

Scholz has lost traction

The historically worst result of the SPD in North Rhine-Westphalia in 2017 of just over 31 percent was even undercut this time: 26.7 percent. At the press conference on the election review in Berlin, a journalist wanted to know whether the defeat of the Social Democrats was also due to the chancellor. SPD leader Lars Klingbeil avoids the question. But that cannot hide the fact that Olaf Scholz, who was very present in the state election campaign, cannot ignore the result.

Until the next federal election in 2025, he still has a good three years to do politics with the Greens and Liberals in the federal government. But apparently he has lost traction. Scholz has repeatedly been accused of reacting too hesitantly to the war in Ukraine. Now he has to keep the shop in Berlin together from a weakened position.

Not much left of the initial euphoria

Making compromises at traffic lights shouldn’t get any easier in this situation. The struggle over the relief packages recently showed that there doesn’t seem to be much left of the initial euphoria of the self-proclaimed “progressive coalition”. It was only after nightly negotiations that the SPD, Greens and FDP were able to agree on a result that resembled horse-trading: the Social Democrats received, among other things, grants for people on welfare, the Greens the nine-euro ticket and the Liberals the fuel discount.

Lindner blows to attack

The Federal Minister of Finance has to raise the money for this. “Suddenly debt minister”, “trickery”, “new debt king” – Christian Lindner has had to deal with such headlines for weeks. Now also the defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia, and that with one of the largest FDP state associations. As a result, the reeling FDP could push even harder for a liberal handwriting in the federal government. So far, one could get the impression that the FDP dominated the traffic light coalition in some areas, such as the failure of the statutory vaccination requirement and the failure of a speed limit.

“The tears have dried,” says FDP leader Lindner at party headquarters in Berlin. And he’s also calling for an attack within the coalition. This is the only way to interpret how he justified the heavy losses in the state elections with federal political issues. The great dissatisfaction with the energy price flat rate contributed to the “dramatic slump” among the over 60-year-olds. The flat rate of 300 euros is part of the traffic light relief package. But they should not be given to pensioners. From Lindner’s point of view, the SPD, which had campaigned for the lump sum, is primarily responsible for this.

FDP will probably stick to red lines

The communication of this question of justice in the overall package of relief was not successful. Consequences must be drawn from this for future political projects of the coalition in Berlin. So will the FDP try to become more visible in the traffic light coalition? “The FDP works reliably, the FDP works professionally in the federal government with its coalition partners,” Lindner dismisses the demand as almost state-supporting. The FDP does not consider party-political self-profiling more important than the success of the government.

But one thing is also certain: after the electoral defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia, Lindner will probably stick to his red lines all the more: no tax increases and a return to the debt brake. Further relief for the citizens and further covetousness of the coalition partners could lead to heated discussions in the traffic light.

Keep Liberals under control, Greens at a distance

Green Party leader Omid Nouripour has just such a desire ready at the Green Party’s federal office a few blocks away: more money for the development budget. In view of a massive looming global food crisis, talks are being held in the coalition. The ailing FDP now also has to deal with the self-confident Greens in the federal government. This means two things for the chancellor: he could soon be busy keeping the liberals, who are trying to make their mark, under control. And the Greens, whose position is strengthened within the traffic light power structure, a little at a distance.

SPD does not want to see any consequences for the federal government

Of course, that sounds different at the press conference in the SPD headquarters. Party leader Klingbeil does not want to see any difficulties that could arise for the traffic light government after the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia. In general, he is a person who worries very little, says Klingbeil. Everyone in the traffic light knew what difficult tasks had to be mastered, from dealing with the consequences of the Ukraine war and fighting the pandemic to the projects from the coalition agreement.

For observers it almost sounds a bit like that, so in the Willy-Brandt-Haus in Berlin they don’t want to fully accept the possible consequences of the state elections in North Rhine-Westphalia. Namely, that increasing unrest in the traffic light coalition at the federal level cannot be ruled out.